|
Posted by Lowell on April 28, 2002 at 23:51:08:
Well, Folks, it looks like I have not been performing my duties as watcher of the forecasts.
There have been a number of forecasts made over the past two weeks which were not part of
The contests. These were made separately by Cathryn, Shan and Don. I review each of these
Below. If I missed any please let me know.
The best of these was Don's Watsonville forecast (#13 below)- a complete success on an
Event which was the largest in its area in nearly six months. A winner had it been entered
In the SFB contest.
In general, three predictors had forecasts that could be evaluated. The following table shows
How their predictions/forecasts did: Completely successful Partially Successful Miss
Cathryn 0 1 1
Shan 0 0 2
Don 2 11 1 Following are the reviews of these predictions/Forecasts
1. Cathryn: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14996.html
Calexico-Cierro Prieto
Posted by Canie on April 18, 2002 at 08:46:26: Magnitude: 5.0+
From: 4/18/02 8am PDT - To: 4/25/02 23:59 PDT
Location: Calexico
Lat: 32.494W - Long: 115.221W - Range: 50km REVIEW: No earthquakes occurred in the appropriate magnitude range. Four earthquakes occurred
Within the distance and time windows, however. A partially successful forecast.
02/04/22 19:17:19 32.30N 115.33W 7.0 2.1ML C 27 mi. SSE of Calexico, CA
02/04/22 23:35:44 32.35N 115.31W 7.0 2.7ML C 24 mi. SSE of Calexico, CA
02/04/22 23:35:50 32.58N 115.60W 16.2 2.4ML C* 9 mi. SW of Calexico, CA
02/04/23 10:41:34 32.35N 115.36W 7.0 2.1ML C 23 mi. SSE of Calexico, CA
2. Cathryn:
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14995.html Gulf of California
Posted by Canie on April 18, 2002 at 08:43:35: Magnitude: 4.5+
From: 4/18/02 8am PDT - To: 4/23/02 23:59 PDT
Location: Gulf of California
Lat: 30.13N - Long: 114.13W - Range: 40km REVIEW:
No earthquakes were registered in the northern Gulf of California in the time given nor in the
Magnitude range given. This was a miss. 3. Shan: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14971.html Manipur, India Quake (4.5+M)
Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on April 17, 2002 at 21:00:24: Magnitude: 4.5 to 5.2 M
From: 18 April 02 - To: 23 April 02
Location: Manipur, India
Lat: 24.27 N - Long: 93.43 E - Range: 150 KMs REVIEW:
NEIC did not register any earthquakes within the range or time frame given in the
Prediction. An earthquake did occur on April 17 at 20:18 in Myanmar with
The following parameters, but cannot be counted because the forecast was made
After the earthquake occurred. A miss. 17Apr2002 20:18:00.4 24.7N 96.1E172 MB=4.1 M NEI MYANMAR 4. Shan: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14897.html XIZANG Quake
Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on April 14, 2002 at 19:59:11: Magnitude: 4.5M+
From: 15 APRIL 02 - To: 17 APRIL 02
Location: XIZANG
Lat: 29.15N - Long: 86.94E - Range: 100 KMs REVIEW:
NEIC did not register any events within the region, time or distance range
Given in the prediction. A miss. 5. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15229.html
New Madrid, Missouri Earthquake Forecast (1.5-3.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 25, 2002 at 21:11:00:
Magnitude: 1.5-3.0Ml
From: 04/29/2002UTC - To: 05/03/2002UTC
Location: New Madrid, Missouri
Lat: 36.7N - Long: 89.5W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
CERI and NEIS listed a Ml 2.7 on April 27, 2002. The epicenter fell about 60 km to the
Southwest of that expected, so was out of the given range. The event also occurred
Earlier than expected., but was within the magnitude window. A partial hit. map 2.7 2002/04/26 21:33:43 35.960N 89.960W 4.5 1 km ( 1 mi) E of Gosnell, AR
27Apr2002 02:33:43.0 36.0N 90.0W 6 MD=2.7 M NEI TENNESSEE 6. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15226.html Whakatane, New Zealand Earthquake Forecast (3.0-4.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 25, 2002 at 18:56:02: Magnitude: 3.0-4.0
From: 05/02/2002UTC - To: 05/06/2002UTC
Location: whakatane, New Zealand
Lat: 38.0S - Long: 177.1E - Range: 65Km REVIEW:
The time window has not yet opened on this event, however a Ml 4.1 did occur
Within 100 km of this epicenter this morning. 7. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15219.html
Barstow, California Earthquake Forecast (2.4-3.5)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 25, 2002 at 10:47:50: Magnitude: 2.4-3.5Ml
From: 04/27/2002UTC - To: 05/01/2002UTC
Location: Barstow, California
Lat: 34.9N - Long: 117.0W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
No event has yet occurred. Time window still open. 8. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/15213.html Parkfield, California Earthquake Forecast (2.4-3.7)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 23, 2002 at 20:46:23: Magnitude: 2.4-3.7Ml
From: 04/30/2002UTC - To: 05/04/2002UTC
Location: Parkfield, California
Lat: 35.8N - Long: 120.3W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
The time window has not yet opened on this forecast, however a Ml 2.2 did
Occur this evening within 35 km of the epicenter with a slightly smaller magnitude
Than given. A partial success at this point. 02/04/29 03:03:09 35.96N 120.51W 5.8 2.2Md B* 10 km NW of Parkfield, CA 9. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14972.html
Salinas, California Earthquake Forecast (2.0-3.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 17, 2002 at 21:16:02:
Magnitude: 2.0-3.0Ml
From: 04/25/2002UTC - To: 04/29/2002UTC
Location: Salinas, California
Lat: 36.7N - Long: 121.5W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
The forecast window has not yet completed, but an event did occur this morning SSE of Tres Pinos
Which matched the forecast in time, magnitude and location (about 20 km to east of the forecast
Epicenter). A hit. 02/04/28 14:17:20 36.65N 121.27W 5.0 2.4Md A* 16 km SSE of Tres Pinos, CA 10. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14945.html
Vacaville, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 16, 2002 at 19:43:20:
Magnitude: 2.3-3.7Ml
From: 05/08/2002UTC - To: 05/12/2002UTC
Location: Vacaville, California
Lat: 38.2N - Long: 121.9W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
The window has not yet opened on this forecast. 11. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14943.html Point Arena, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 16, 2002 at 17:55:06: Magnitude: 2.0-3.3Ml
From: 04/21/2002UTC - To: 04/25/2002UTC
Location: Point Arena, California
Lat: 38.9N - Long: 123.7W - Range: 35Km REVIEW: No event was a complete match to this forecast, however three were close.
An event at Geysers matched in magnitude and time window, but was about 50
Km away, outside the given radius. Events at Willits and Ukiah were close to
The distance range, but 1 and 2 days later than the window. A partial success. 02/04/23 07:07:05 38.82N 122.80W 5.0 2.4Md A* 2 km N of The Geysers
02/04/27 03:05:56 39.47N 123.33W 0.2 3.4Ml C* 6 km NNE of Willits, CA
02/04/26 11:01:26 39.04N 123.12W 5.1 3.5Ml B* 14 km SSE of Ukiah, CA 12. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14932.html Fillmore, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 16, 2002 at 11:48:04: Magnitude: 2.3-3.4
From: 04/22/2002UTC - To: 04/26/2002UTC
Location: Fillmore, California
Lat: 34.9N - Long: 119.0w - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
A Ml 2.2 occurred E. of Oxnard on April 25. It was about 70 km distant from the
Forecast epicenter, but otherwise matched closely the window and magnitude limits.
A partial success. 02/04/25 11:21:57 34.19N 119.15W 2.9 2.2ML B 1 mi. E of Oxnard, CA 13. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14919.html Watsonville, California Earthquake Forecast (2.5-3.9)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 15, 2002 at 19:15:15: Magnitude: 2.5-3.9Ml
From: 04/21/2002UTC - To: 04/25/2002UTC
Location: Watsonville, California
Lat: 36.9N - Long: 121.8W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
A Mw 3.7, the largest in this region in nearly half a year occurred less than 15 km to the
East of the forecast epicenter on the day expected. This event was within the magnitude
Limits and time window (it occurred on the expected day). A strikingly successful hit. 02/04/23 11:59:20 36.87N 121.61W 9.1 3.7Mw A* 7 km WNW of San Juan Bautista, CA (Too bad it was not entered in the SFB contest, it would have been the winning forecast). 14. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14782.html
Santa Barbara, California Earthquake Forecast (2.5-3.9)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 21:59:22:
Magnitude: 2.5-3.9Ml
From: 04/19/2002UTC - To: 04/23/2002UTC
Location: Santa Barbara, California
Lat: 34.3N - Long: 119.6 - Range: 35Km REVIEW: Two earthquakes occurred on either side of the time window. The later
Was within the distance range but slightly smaller than expected. A partial hit. 02/04/25 11:21:57 34.19N 119.15W 2.9 2.2ML B 1 mi. E of Oxnard, CA 15. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14779.html Manzanar, California Earthquake Forecast (2.0-3.3)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 21:40:27: Magnitude: 2.0-3.3Ml
From: 04/17/2002UTC - To: 04/21/2002UTC
Location: Manzanar, California
Lat: 36.8N - Long: 118.1W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
No earthquakes were listed which matched the parameters set in this forecast.
A Miss. 16. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14778.html Death Valley, California Earthquake Forecast (2.0-3.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 21:31:45: Magnitude: 2.0-3.0Ml
From: 04/19/2002UTC - To: 04/23/2002UTC
Location: Death Valley, California
Lat: 36.0N - Long: 116.7W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
An earthquake of Ml 2.0 occurred within the time and magnitude limits, but was about 80 km to
The west. A partial hit. 02/04/19 16:35:32 36.08N 117.83W 5.0 2.0ML A 6 mi. ENE of Coso Junction, 17. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14776.html Greenfield, California Earthquake Forecast (2.0-3.5)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 21:19:22: Magnitude: 2.0-3.5Ml
From: 04/19/2002UTC - To: 04/23/2002UTC
Location: Greenfield, California
Lat: 36.3N - Long: 121.3W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
An earthquake within the magnitude and distance requirements occurred about half a day
After the window closed. This is a partial success. An earthquake also occurred within the
Magnitude and time limits, but was slightly outside the distance range. Another partial success.
02/04/19 11:02:42 36.78N 121.48W 4.5 3.0Md B* 9 km SSE of San Juan Bautist
02/04/24 12:16:47 36.56N 121.15W 2.8 2.2Md A* 9 km NW of San Benito, CA
18. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14763.html Big Bear Lake, California Earthquake Forecast (2.0-3.2)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 10:51:57: Magnitude: 2.0-3.2Ml
From: 04/19/2002UTC - To: 04/23/2002UTC
Location: Big Bear Lake, California
Lat: 34.2N - Long: 116.9W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
An earthquake occurred within 15 km of this epicenter one day late, but
Within the given magnitude limits. A partial success.
02/04/24 20:45:52 34.27N 116.70W 5.7 2.3ML C 9 mi. E of Big Bear City,
19. Don: http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14756.html Mammoth Lakes Area, California Earthquake Forecast (2.6-3.9)
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 11, 2002 at 01:39:50: Magnitude: 2.6-3.9
From: 04/18/2002UTC - To: 04/22/2002UTC
Location: Mammoth Lakes Area, California
Lat: 37.9N - Long: 118.4W - Range: 35Km REVIEW:
An earthquake occurred within 30 km of the forecast epicenter and within
The given magnitude range a day late. A partial success. A smaller earthquake
Than forecast occurred within the time and distance ranges (about 15 km away)
Another partial success.
02/04/24 19:47:54 38.05N 118.74W 9.0 2.8Md C* 36 km ENE of Lee Vining, CA
02/04/21 09:30:46 37.89N 118.56W 0.3 2.1Md C* 45 km NE of Mammoth Lakes,
|
