A short note to fill you all in on the progress of the latest Far-Field forecast issued after the earthquakes in Chile, Mexico and the South Sandwich Islands.

At the end of the forecast some actual latitudes and longitudes were identified. I thought it might be useful to see how those regions have fared in the 4 days since those three events.

In the past three days NEIS has listed 21 events. Of these 11 matched to some extent the 15 possible
Listed most likely FFA sites identified in the forecast. In addition 5 of the 15 listed areas
Where FFAs were considered likely have seen no regionally significant activity, the
Other 10 have seen at least one significant regional shock.

Following is a comparison of the forecasts and occurring events.

The forecast had said:

From the combination effects of these events several areas seem
likely to see events of Ms>=5.5 in the next 10 days. These include

Colombia around 7N 73W
Southern Kuril Islands 43N 147E
New Britain/New Ireland 5S 153E
northern Vanuatu Is. 14S 167E
Other areas where an earthquake of Mb>=4.5 may be and FFA.

Off the Coast of Jalsico Mexico (about 21N 106W)
Virgin Islands
Peru 11-14S
Sicily, Italy
Santiago, Chile region
El Salvador/Guatemala
Hindu Kush area

U.S./CANADA

Areas of southern California near the Mexican border are the most
likely (Calexico/Imperial Valley) to see increased seismicity
from this pattern. Seismic activity may increase at:

SE Alaska
Southern New England
continued micro-earthquakes in So. Carolina, New Madrid MO.

Comparisons with occurring earthquakes:

Forecast:
Colombia around 7N 73W
Occurrence:
The regional network ULA (website at)

http://celeste.ciens.ula.ve/BOLETIN/prelim02.htm

is identifiying a series of earthquakes near 7N 73W yesterday.

21/04/02 04:54:17 06.81N 73.18W 154 4.1Mc Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
21/04/02 09:35:23 06.80N 73.22W 178 3.9Mc Dpto. Santander, Colombia.
21/04/02 11:46:50 06.51N 73.60W 134 3.9Mc Dpto. Santander, Colombia.

Forecast:
Southern Kuril Islands 43N 147E
Occurrence:
2002/04/20,21:30 41.6 N 142.1 E 70 km Mj 4.7 E_OFF_AOMORI_PREF

Source:
http://argent.geo.bosai.go.jp/freesia/event/hypo/joho.html

02/04/20 21:30:33 41.75N 142.05E 80.8 4.7M A HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
02/04/20 00:32:21 48.25N 146.85E 462.9 4.4M A SEA OF OKHOTSK
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Forecast:
New Britain/New Ireland 5S 153E
Occurrence:
02/04/22 01:56:21 6.25S 154.67E 48.0 5.2M A SOLOMON ISLANDS
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Forecast
northern Vanuatu Is. 14S 167E

Occurrence
2002/04/21 17:59:04.7 16.9S 162.1E Ms5.1 M GSSC VANUATU ISLANDS REGION
Source:

http://www.emsc-csem.org/cgi-bin/ALERT_all_messages.sh?1

Occurrence
02/04/21 17:58:46 20.61S 162.23E 33.0 5.2M B NEW CALEDONIA
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Forecast
Off the Coast of Jalsico Mexico (about 21N 106W)
Occurrence
02/04/21 20:23:30 19.08N 105.13W 33.0 4.4M A NEAR COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake
02/04/21 20:23:30 19.20N 105.70W 33.0 5.0ML A NEAR COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
Source:
http://www.ssn.unam.mx/SSN/ssn-ultimos.

Forecast
Southern New England
Occurrence
02/04/20 10:50:44 44.51N 73.66W 5.0 5.1M A NEW YORK
02/04/20 11:04:40 44.50N 73.67W 5.0 4.0M A NEW YORK
02/04/20 11:45:26 44.50N 73.67W 5.0 2.6M A NEW YORK
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Forecast
continued micro-earthquakes in New Madrid MO.
Occurrence:
02/04/20 19:59:57 36.21N 89.45W 5.0 2.8M A NEW MADRID, MISSOURI REGION
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

map 2.5 2002/04/22 09:03:08 36.010N 88.970W 9.6 4 km ( 3 mi) NW of Trenton, TN
MAP 3.0 2002/04/20 15:00:00 36.130N 89.390W 6.8 11 km ( 7 mi) N of Dyersburg, TN

Source:
http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

Forecast
El Salvador/Guatemala
Occurrence
02/04/21 19:50:47 13.64N 91.93W 33.0 4.4M B NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA
Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov/name=quake

Forecast
Peru 11-14S
2002/04/22 04:57 12.47 76.81 33 4.7 IV Chilca, Peru
Source:
http://www.igp.gob.pe/cns/net_main.htm