Taxing day contest - other possibilities
Posted by Lowell on April 21, 2002 at 18:43:06:

Roger,
CNSS has recorded most of the California events fine, so we need address only those outside
Of California.
There were 4 of these predictions:

Cathryn had forecast for the Virgin Islands
17.436N 64.53W M 4.6-6 120 km radius
and
Paris Texas
33.66N 95.54W M 3+ 60 km radius

Petra had forecast for Texarkana, TX
33.4N 94.4W M 1.2-2.2 166.7 km radius
and
Missouri
37.7N 91.8W M 1.2-2.2 166.7 km radius

CERI has the following events listed which are not in the CNSS catalog:

map 1.2 2002/04/15 10:41:26 36.260N 89.500W 7.0 1 km ( 1 mi) WSW of Ridgely, TN
map 2.0 2002/04/14 18:14:16 36.040N 89.480W 5.4 9 km ( 5 mi) W of Dyersburg, TN
map 2.8 2002/04/14 03:35:02 39.939N 100.320W 5.0 16 km (10 mi) NW of Norcatur, KS

The first two seem like possible matches to Petra's Missouri forecast.
The Kansas event may outshine them if a very extended radius of possibility is used - on either Petra's
Or Cathryn's Texas forecast.

As for Cathryn's Virgin Island Forecast, the PRNS (Puerto Rico Seismic Network lists the following
Events occurring on April 14, 15 or 16:

2002/04/15 08:05:17.55 19.134N 66.499W 23.2 3.2 D North of Puerto Rico
2002/04/14 15:28:49.78 18.292N 68.595W 25.0 3.5 D Eastern Dominican Republic
2002/04/14 15:10:49.86 18.618N 66.749W 27.3 2.1a C North of Puerto Rico
2002/04/14 00:42:40.73 18.206N 68.698W 119.9 4.0 D Eastern Dominican

The Ml 3.2 or Ml 2.1 might be a possible in terms of location, the Ml 4.0 in the eastern Dominican
Republic might be more improbable.

My suspicion is that Petra's Missouri forecast will ultimately be the winner, but let's check it out.

Sources: (PRSN)

http://rmsismo.upr.clu.edu/English/index.html


CERI
http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html


P.S. I did check the on-line seismograms from Texas, and nothing unusual appears to have occurred
In that state on either 14 or 15 or 16 of April .

Don did not make an official forecast for the taxing contest. He did have a forecast for an earthquake
Of Ml 3.0-4.0 to occur between April 11 and April 15 in New Zealand at 39.0S 174.3E (65 km radius)
Which was unofficial. IGNS and QED have listed an event early on April 16 (within the taxing day
Contest limit of Ml>3 at 38.9S 174.7E within Don's magnitude and location limits, but about 10 hours
Outside his time window. It would be interesting to see if this unofficial entry has a lower probability
Than the official entries.