I'm not sure whether a true correlation between lack of quakes and a moderate quake exists.

However, I have noticed that when you get microquakes along the Newport-Inglewood fault zone from about Huntington Beach up through the "end" and along the same trend into the San Fernando Valley we get a 4 pointer, swarm, or both within a month.

This pattern has held true with the 4.2 in Hollywood, the 4.0(?) and swarm in Compton, and the 4.something up in Simi Valley.

I also think that there was one closer to Santa Monica last year that exhibited the same pattern.

Mary
Los Angeles