April contest winner
Posted by Roger Hunter on April 12, 2002 at 13:32:34:

Hi all;

Well, here's the April contest results finally.


 1   Canie
2002/3 /27 - 2002/4 /6  36.08  -117.62 4.5 9.9 40 Prob.1.20%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/03/10 00:42:31.68  36.4775 -121.0562        310.9  100%
2002/03/10 14:12:24.93  36.0113 -120.5592        264.1  100%
2002/03/12 04:37:32.63  37.4525 -118.6507        177.9  100%
2002/03/14 03:19:50.56  38.0367 -118.7728        240.2  100%
2002/03/14 09:00:44.74  37.6315 -119.3728        232.3  100%
2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60   310.2  15.6%
2002/03/17 09:55:24.15  37.0037 -121.4595        357.7  100%
2002/03/17 11:51:33.51  37.0028 -121.4572        357.5  100%
2002/03/19 14:28:23.21  38.0452 -118.7860        241.6  100%
2002/03/22 03:30:53.60  38.0525 -118.2142        225.4  100%
2002/03/22 23:15:17.61  37.4558 -118.8532        188.2  100%
2002/03/22 23:15:24.45  37.4680 -118.8472        189.0  100%
2002/03/24 10:44:07.14  37.0150 -115.1040 4.20   247.4  29.5%
2002/03/25 00:12:04.85  37.4838 -118.6658        181.6  100%
2002/03/25 15:36:56.27  37.1855 -122.1337        420.7  100%
2002/03/25 19:51:23.59  37.1972 -122.0908        417.4  100%
2002/03/27 07:21:30.77  37.8073 -121.9565        430.2  100%
2002/03/27 07:22:35.83  37.8135 -121.9705        431.6  100%
2002/03/27 08:39:19.94  37.8447 -122.0058        435.8  100%
2002/03/30 15:51:12.37  37.8097 -121.9918        433.1  100%
2002/03/30 16:59:11.96  38.1275 -118.6418        244.8  100%
2002/04/01 10:54:29.87  37.4667 -118.8145        187.2  100%
2002/04/01 16:13:55.95  35.9578 -120.5128        260.3  100%
2002/04/01 17:40:43.95  32.6742 -115.8698 0.00   411.0  100%
2002/04/01 18:21:28.29  37.3965 -118.8332        181.8  100%
2002/04/02 09:20:52.82  35.2857 -118.5395        121.1  100%
2002/04/03 09:15:05.65  37.3600 -121.7242        392.1  100%
2002/04/03 09:30:42.56  37.1217 -121.5357        367.9  100%
2002/04/03 15:12:08.69  36.7833 -121.7542        377.7  100%
2002/04/04 15:49:55.12  37.0558 -121.4932        362.2  100%
2002/04/04 18:09:28.37  37.5083 -118.6735        184.3  100%
2002/04/05 00:48:07.15  37.4818 -118.8452        190.1  100%
2002/04/05 08:02:56.05  34.5240 -116.2947 4.39   210.5  26.5%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/01 10:54:29.87  37.4667 -118.8145         .5
 Best dist 2002/04/02 09:20:52.82  35.2857 -118.5395      121.1297
 Best size 2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60   4.6
 Best prob 2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60  15.6%

 2   Canie
2002/4 /1  - 2002/4 /7  33.33  -115.7  4.5 9.9 50 Prob.0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/03/12 04:37:32.63  37.4525 -118.6507        530.2  100%
2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60   338.4  8.04%
2002/03/22 23:15:17.61  37.4558 -118.8532        540.0  100%
2002/03/22 23:15:24.45  37.4680 -118.8472        540.8  100%
2002/03/23 14:02:11.44  30.2280 -113.7520 4.40   390.6  19.9%
2002/03/24 10:44:07.14  37.0150 -115.1040 4.20   413.0  20.3%
2002/03/25 00:12:04.85  37.4838 -118.6658        533.9  100%
2002/03/26 15:03:47.56  30.2440 -113.8300 4.40   385.6  19.5%
2002/03/27 11:12:59.53  30.3120 -113.9150        375.2  100%
2002/03/27 11:18:04.40  30.1380 -114.0700 4.70   386.6  9.96%
2002/04/01 10:54:29.87  37.4667 -118.8145        539.2  100%
2002/04/01 16:13:55.95  35.9578 -120.5128        527.9  100%
2002/04/01 17:40:43.95  32.6742 -115.8698 0.00    74.6  100%
2002/04/01 18:21:28.29  37.3965 -118.8332        533.5  100%
2002/04/02 09:20:52.82  35.2857 -118.5395        339.3  100%
2002/04/04 18:09:28.37  37.5083 -118.6735        536.5  100%
2002/04/05 00:48:07.15  37.4818 -118.8452        542.0  100%
2002/04/05 08:02:56.05  34.5240 -116.2947 4.39   143.5  6.51%
2002/03/12 04:37:32.63  37.4525 -118.6507        530.2  100%
2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60   338.4  8.04%
2002/03/22 23:15:17.61  37.4558 -118.8532        540.0  100%
2002/03/22 23:15:24.45  37.4680 -118.8472        540.8  100%
2002/03/23 14:02:11.44  30.2280 -113.7520 4.40   390.6  19.9%
2002/03/24 10:44:07.14  37.0150 -115.1040 4.20   413.0  20.3%
2002/03/25 00:12:04.85  37.4838 -118.6658        533.9  100%
2002/03/26 15:03:47.56  30.2440 -113.8300 4.40   385.6  19.5%
2002/03/27 11:12:59.53  30.3120 -113.9150        375.2  100%
2002/03/27 11:18:04.40  30.1380 -114.0700 4.70   386.6  9.96%
2002/04/01 10:54:29.87  37.4667 -118.8145        539.2  100%
2002/04/01 16:13:55.95  35.9578 -120.5128        527.9  100%
2002/04/01 17:40:43.95  32.6742 -115.8698 0.00    74.6  100%
2002/04/01 18:21:28.29  37.3965 -118.8332        533.5  100%
2002/04/02 09:20:52.82  35.2857 -118.5395        339.3  100%
2002/04/04 18:09:28.37  37.5083 -118.6735        536.5  100%
2002/04/05 00:48:07.15  37.4818 -118.8452        542.0  100%
2002/04/05 08:02:56.05  34.5240 -116.2947 4.39   143.5  6.51%
2002/03/12 04:37:32.63  37.4525 -118.6507        530.2  100%
2002/03/16 21:33:23.82  33.6660 -119.3300 4.60   338.4  8.04%
2002/03/22 23:15:17.61  37.4558 -118.8532        540.0  100%
2002/03/22 23:15:24.45  37.4680 -118.8472        540.8  100%
2002/03/23 14:02:11.44  30.2280 -113.7520 4.40   390.6  19.9%
2002/03/24 10:44:07.14  37.0150 -115.1040 4.20   413.0  20.3%
2002/03/25 00:12:04.85  37.4838 -118.6658        533.9  100%
2002/03/26 15:03:47.56  30.2440 -113.8300 4.40   385.6  19.5%
2002/03/27 11:12:59.53  30.3120 -113.9150        375.2  100%
2002/03/27 11:18:04.40  30.1380 -114.0700 4.70   386.6  9.96%
2002/04/01 10:54:29.87  37.4667 -118.8145        539.2  100%
2002/04/01 16:13:55.95  35.9578 -120.5128        527.9  100%
2002/04/01 17:40:43.95  32.6742 -115.8698 0.00    74.6  100%
2002/04/01 18:21:28.29  37.3965 -118.8332        533.5  100%
2002/04/02 09:20:52.82  35.2857 -118.5395        339.3  100%
2002/04/04 18:09:28.37  37.5083 -118.6735        536.5  100%
2002/04/05 00:48:07.15  37.4818 -118.8452        542.0  100%
2002/04/05 08:02:56.05  34.5240 -116.2947 4.39   143.5  6.51%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/04 18:09:28.37  37.5083 -118.6735        .5
 Best dist 2002/04/01 17:40:43.95  32.6742 -115.8698 0.00 74.557265
 Best size 2002/03/27 11:18:04.40  30.1380 -114.0700 4.70  4.7
 Best prob 2002/04/05 08:02:56.05  34.5240 -116.2947 4.39  6.51%

 3   Cathryn
2002/4 /1  - 2002/4 /7  46.3   -74.2   2   3.5 80 Prob..383%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/03/30 09:24:17.00  45.69    -73.88   2.4    72.1  .383%
2002/03/31 20 23 38     46.02    -74.74   2.0    51.9  .383%
2002 04 01 12 31 19     44.8     -73.75   2.6   170.3  3.06%
2002 04 01 16 05 22     46.3     -75.76   3.0   119.7  1.14%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002 04 01 12 31 19     44.8     -73.75   2.6  3.5
 Best dist 2002/03/31 20 23 38     46.02    -74.74   2.0 51.908342
 Best size 2002 04 01 16 05 22     46.3     -75.76   3.0  3
 Best prob 2002/03/30 09:24:17.00  45.69    -73.88   2.4   .383%

 4              . Don
2002/3 /29 - 2002/4 /2  -40.2  176.6   3   4.2 65 Prob.13.3%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/03/14 03:57:00.53 -37.4640  178.4150        342.1  86.6%
2002/03/18 16:22:08.60 -38.9200  177.8600 3.80   178.5  45.3%
2002/03/21 11:42:37.40 -41.0200  173.7700 3.80   255.5  58.1%
2002/03/24 02:15:07.40 -38.8100  175.9400        164.5  56.0%
2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70    22.4  15.0%
2002/03/26 07:24:06.50 -37.7900  176.3800        268.4  83.0%
2002/03/26 10:58:51.80 -36.9200  177.8400        380.0  88.2%
2002/03/27 04:20:33.70 -37.0500  177.9700 4.00   369.6  66.6%
2002/03/27 14:39:31.40 -41.5800  173.9500 3.80   270.2  59.5%
2002/03/28 09:00:31.40 -42.0400  174.0400 4.00   296.1  62.5%
2002/04/02 04:40:44.10 -39.7600  174.5100        184.5  67.2%
2002/03/14 03:57:00.53 -37.4640  178.4150        342.1  86.6%
2002/03/18 16:22:08.60 -38.9200  177.8600 3.80   178.5  45.3%
2002/03/21 11:42:37.40 -41.0200  173.7700 3.80   255.5  58.1%
2002/03/24 02:15:07.40 -38.8100  175.9400        164.5  56.0%
2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70    22.4  15.0%
2002/03/26 07:24:06.50 -37.7900  176.3800        268.4  83.0%
2002/03/26 10:58:51.80 -36.9200  177.8400        380.0  88.2%
2002/03/27 04:20:33.70 -37.0500  177.9700 4.00   369.6  66.6%
2002/03/27 14:39:31.40 -41.5800  173.9500 3.80   270.2  59.5%
2002/03/28 09:00:31.40 -42.0400  174.0400 4.00   296.1  62.5%
2002/04/02 04:40:44.10 -39.7600  174.5100        184.5  67.2%
2002/03/14 03:57:00.53 -37.4640  178.4150        342.1  86.6%
2002/03/18 16:22:08.60 -38.9200  177.8600 3.80   178.5  45.3%
2002/03/21 11:42:37.40 -41.0200  173.7700 3.80   255.5  58.1%
2002/03/24 02:15:07.40 -38.8100  175.9400        164.5  56.0%
2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70    22.4  15.0%
2002/03/26 07:24:06.50 -37.7900  176.3800        268.4  83.0%
2002/03/26 10:58:51.80 -36.9200  177.8400        380.0  88.2%
2002/03/27 04:20:33.70 -37.0500  177.9700 4.00   369.6  66.6%
2002/03/27 14:39:31.40 -41.5800  173.9500 3.80   270.2  59.5%
2002/03/28 09:00:31.40 -42.0400  174.0400 4.00   296.1  62.5%
2002/04/02 04:40:44.10 -39.7600  174.5100        184.5  67.2%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/04/02 04:40:44.10 -39.7600  174.5100       1.5
 Best dist 2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70 22.43516
 Best size 2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70  4.7
 Best prob 2002/03/26 05:22:50.30 -40.3800  176.4800 4.70 15.0%

 5              . Don
2002/4 /2  - 2002/4 /6  33.6   -12.6   3.5 4.5 65 Prob..273%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 6              . Kate
2002/4 /1  - 2002/4 /4  47.44  -122.69 3   4.2 35 Prob.1.96%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 7              . Petra
2002/4 /1  - 2002/4 /7  62.5   -114.4  1.8 3.5 80 Prob.0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 8              . Petra
2002/4 /1  - 2002/4 /7  23     109     3.8 4.9 80 Prob.0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

Petra, the Revilla Gigedo quakes were too far away to fit.

So the winner is Cathryn, with a very unlikely near miss.

Congratulations, Cathryn.

The hard part will come when someone has a perfect high probability
hit and someone else has a low probability near-miss.

Give that some thought, y'all.

Roger

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: April contest winner - Cathryn  17:11:53 - 4/12/2002  (14817)  (1)
        ● Re: April contest winner Congrats Cathryn! - Petra Challus  17:57:13 - 4/12/2002  (14822)  (1)
           ● Re: April contest winner Congrats Cathryn! - Cathryn  08:33:54 - 4/13/2002  (14847)  (0)