Don's Santa Rosa Isl forecast and tonight's Pt. Conception earthquake
Posted by Lowell on April 10, 2002 at 21:21:08:

Hey Don,
I'll have to give you this much. The earthquake forecast you had for Santa Rosa Island was close.
And I have to give you credit for trying at an unusual epicenter too.

You had forecast (#14004):

F: 09APR2002 +/- 2day 33.7N 119.9W Ml 2.5-3.9 within 35 km.

Tonight there was an earthquake with the following parameters:

O: 10APR2002 19:29:42 34.4N 120.5W ML=2.6 W of Pt. Conception, CA

This is out of your distance range (about 95 km away), but within the magnitude and
Time window. By hand I calculate the probability of an event within 95 km of Ml2.5-3.9
In a 5-day time window at approximately 19%. That would put your odds at about
1 in 5 of a successful random prediction on this event.