Posted by Lowell on April 10, 2002 at 21:21:08:
Hey Don, I'll have to give you this much. The earthquake forecast you had for Santa Rosa Island was close. And I have to give you credit for trying at an unusual epicenter too. You had forecast (#14004): F: 09APR2002 +/- 2day 33.7N 119.9W Ml 2.5-3.9 within 35 km. Tonight there was an earthquake with the following parameters: O: 10APR2002 19:29:42 34.4N 120.5W ML=2.6 W of Pt. Conception, CA This is out of your distance range (about 95 km away), but within the magnitude and Time window. By hand I calculate the probability of an event within 95 km of Ml2.5-3.9 In a 5-day time window at approximately 19%. That would put your odds at about 1 in 5 of a successful random prediction on this event.
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