The Saturday Review - Thinking Backwards

Thirty years ago there was no such thing as preventive medicine. But somehow a process occurred and today there is as much emphasis placed on preventing diseases as there is in curing them. You have to wonder what caused this change of focus. How did it evolve in the initiation stages? Did a group of people have this idea, or did it come from one and then spread until it caught on like a wild fire? Progress is an interesting matter when examined in greater detail.

Today most achievements evolve rapidly because of the technological ability to further the knowledge base and exercise hypothetical scenario's, before real events take place. Many of these achievements came as a result of the space program. But what caused the US to become so focused on the space program in the first place? To be in competition with the Russians. I guess a little healthy competition in the end does have some positive effects.

So before I begin with another possible example, please don't let your mind say, "it's not possible," before you get to the end.

We presently are focused on locating future earthquake epicenters. But if we start to think backwards, in the "larger sense" we already know where those places will be. Enough study has been done to point out the "seismic gaps", faults which seem to have an unusual amount of stress, ie: long-term probability studies and we see on a daily basis where earthquakes occur regularly. But, can we now take the leap and think of how to prevent earthquakes instead of just forecasting them?

Using the knowledge of where future earthquakes are most likely to occur, then it narrows down the locations, so what can be done about fixing those weak points, or points under stress? While some locations which have a very deep focus, we know we can rule those out, because that may be out of our reach, so we place an emphasis on more shallow earthquake faults.

Let us think of some possible "cure" or "fix" for these areas. If asperities are breaking away and holding the faults in check, then as smaller quakes signal the breaking of these asperities, maybe the "asperity" can be repaired. We have to keep in mind today we have a vast storehouse of chemicals and engineers who tackle problems which are far greater than this, so we should be positive in finding solutions.
In just using my imagination, I could think of using cement, concrete, foam which hardens like rock, laser beams which reconfigure the fault, such building a dyke for water flowing into areas where one doesn't want it to go. Chemicals which create crystals that in time fill faults until the entire segment has no air space anymore. These I believe can be added to with many minds who have far superior ideas than my own, but which can further this thought process.

How many times in the past have we seen volcanos erupt and the lava begins to threaten a city and suddenly, ideas come forth about how to stop this process. In some cases they have built dykes to hold back the forward motion of the lava, spraying water on it to cool it and slow it down, tractors are used to move it. In the realm of earthquake faults, they are like this lava, a formidable obstacle, which needs to be dealt with.

Let us one this one day, think backwards. Gather what knowledge one has in understanding the basics of earthquake faults and give credence to prevention. Prediction studies will keep the motion going in finding future weak points, but give thought to fixing those that are already damaged.

Nothing is impossible if the desire is great enough, the will strong enough and with support of many who wish to find the resolution to the problem. At least its here on terra firma, not out in space where it's hard to get the equipment to the location.

For Positive Thinking in reverse.

Petra Challus
Copyright@Challus Media 2002