Re: Roger, Prediction Evaluation
Posted by Don In Hollister on April 05, 2002 at 12:05:24:

Hi Roger. Just so we are on the same page. Here is the way the data I use is scored. It may or may not be something you would want to use. Take Care…Don in creepy town

For timing:
A: within 2 days of stated date
B: 3-5 days from date
C: 6-8 days from date
D: greater than 8 days from expected date

For latitude and longitude:
A: within 50 km of stated location
B: within 50-90 km
C: 90-150 km
D: greater than 150 km away from

For Magnitude:
A: within stated magnitude limits +/- 0.1
B: larger than expected OR within 0.3 units on lower end
C: 0.3-1.0 units smaller than expected
D: more than 1 unit magnitude smaller than expected

The last qualifier is the probability the event would occur
randomly within the stated parameters:
A: probability less than 10%
B: probability 10-20%
C: probability 20-30%
D: probability > 30%


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Roger, Prediction Evaluation - Roger Hunter  13:41:56 - 4/5/2002  (14648)  (0)