We have a winner in the Easter Egg Contest.

First, thanks to all participated. We were looking for some fun, and I think the Easter Egg
Contest gave it to us.

Let me sum up first the observations that led to the contest.

It was noted that a series of felt earthquakes are often observed following earthquakes
In northern Chile (where an event had just occurred) in the Central Plains to the northeast
U.S. At least one of these events usually happened three days after the Chile earthquake.
It happened that the Chile earthquake occurred three days before Easter this year (March 31),
So the event appeared most likely to occur on Easter day. A contest was set for a chocolate
Easter Egg to be awarded to the person who could best predict where and how large the
Easter Day earthquake would be. The event had to occur within one day of Easter - that is
On 30 March, 31 March or 1 April.

So a series of predictions were received from members of this board including:

.

1 . Canie
2002/3 /31 - 2002/4 /1 35.633 -119.2051.7 2.5 40 Prob. 6.68%

2 . Canie
2002/4 /1 - 2002/4 /1 17 -103 4.5 9.9 50 Prob. 0%

3 . Cathryn
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 34.24 -116.89 3 4.5 50 Prob. 15.1%

4 . Cathryn
2002/4 /1 - 2002/4 /1 36.44 -97.86 1.6 2.6 50 Prob. 0%

5 . Chris
2002/3 /31 - 2002/4 /1 33.35 -115.75 3 4.5 10 Prob. .438%

6 . Don
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 33.4 -117.1 2 3 35 Prob. 29.0%

7 . Michael
2002/3 /29 - 2002/4 /2 36.23 -89.44 2 3.5 100 Prob. 17.7%

8 . Petra
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 35.02 -119 1.3 2.3 40 Prob. 61.5%

9 . Petra
2002/3 /30 - 2002/4 /1 40.6 -123.45 1.7 2.7 60 Prob. 40.8%

What Happened:

The Easter Earthquake turned out not to be in the U.S. afterall, but in Taiwan (Mw 7.3) where it
Did extensive damage and killed at least 5 in the Taipei and Hualien areas.
A number of interesting earthquakes did occur in the U.S. and Canada during this three-day
Period, however. These included a Mb 2.8 in the Texas Panhandle near Amarillo, a Mb 3.8
Near Mesa Grande in southern California, a Ml 3.6 off the Coast of Northern California, a Mb 4.5
Off the coast of Oregon; a Ml 3.5 in northwest Wyoming; a Ml 3.1 in Central Colorado; and
Ml 2.4, 2.5, .26 and 3.0 along the Quebec/New York State border. With all this significant
And scattered activity throughout the U.S. this was one of the most active periods of U.S.
Seismicity in the past year, and perfect opportunity to test one's earthquake prediction skills.

Most contestants obtained best probability scores of better than 50%. The second place winner,
However was Don in Hollister with a forecast for southern California with a best probability
On a given event of 32% (odds of 1 in 3 or random success).

The winner, however, was Cathryn, whose prediction for Enid Oklahoma had a best probability
Match with the Texas Panhandle earthquake of 0.930% (odds of a successful random guess about
1 in 100).

Congratulations to Cathryn.
Please e-mail me your snail mail address, and your Chocolate easter egg trophy will be on the way.

My e-mail is :
Lowell Whiteside
Low@luna.ngdc.noaa.gov

Many thanks from myself and (I am sure) from the other contestants to Roger Hunter for his
Tireless efforts to perfect his earthquake prediction evaluation program so that a winner in
This contest could be determined.