Re: Earthquake forecasting goals
Posted by EQF on April 03, 2002 at 04:53:20:

Don, 2cents …,

There are three things which I will state here in response to your comments. Whether or not you believe them is up to you. However, I would hope that if you check the information at my Web sites then that would convince you that they are believable. Top professionals in the field of geology have contacted me and said that they were impressed by the theories and data stored there.

1. I myself am an experienced professional analyst and have been evaluating complex data systems for a living for quite a while. You do not need to lecture me on how to evaluate data. As far as posting earthquake forecasts to this bulletin board is concerned I have repeatedly said that I do not intend to do that. I presently feel that it would not be appropriate.

2. With regard to getting government officials etc. to listen to my earthquake forecasts I can assure you there is no problem there with regard to credibility no matter what you might believe or what experiences you yourselves may have had. If I need to have people act on a forecast then I believe that I know how to get that done. However, my forecasts are usually for potentially destructive earthquakes. And they rarely occur here in the U.S. I cannot even recall when the last time was that I circulated a forecast for a U.S. earthquake. Several advisories or warnings were circulated during the week before that February, 2001 Seattle earthquake. But I could not at that time determine that the expected seismic activity was headed for a U.S. location.

3. It does not appear that anyone is interested in the creation of an earthquake forecast registry file at this time. And so it does not look like it would be productive to discuss this any further. I will say that I believe that as long as that file does not exist much of the potentially valuable earthquake forecasting data being posted to different Internet sites will continue to go to waste.

These are my own opinions.