|
Posted by Lowell on March 31, 2002 at 21:23:46:
TROUBLE BREWING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR THE SHADOWS SUMMARY The strongest earthquakes to occur since the large event in the
region of Taiwan last night have been a swarm of events in the
Reykjanes Ridge in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge south of Iceland.
These events are occurring at approximately 101-102 degrees from
the large Taiwan earthquake and appear to be possible FFA. The FF
forecast from Chile had noted: "The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:
(Number in paranthesis indicated number of times and event of M>=6
has followed a Chile/Bolivia mainshock within 2-3 weeks). Northern Atlantic - especially ridge events" The shadow zone boundary has also seen other unusual activity
since the Ryukyu mainshock on March 26 (MW=6.7). It had been expected
from the Chile event of March 28 (Mw 6.5) along with the Ryukyu
event that the region along the CM shadow zone boundary would
be active in the Central U.S. from Wyoming to Missouri and from
Texas to So. Dakota. This far the following unusual events have
been registered in this region since the Chile earthquake: March 29: East-Central Colorado Ml 2.9 (102 deg)
March 30: Strait of Gibraltar, Spain Mb 4.0 (103 deg)
March 31: Texas Panhandle Ml 2.6 (107 deg)
March 31: Jackson Lake Wyoming Ml 3.5 (plus numerous aftershocks) (100 deg)
March 31: Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge Ml 5.5, 5.0 (Many aftershocks) (102 deg) (Degrees distant from Ryukyu and Taiwan earthquakes) The FFA summary from Chile had put it this way on March 28: "SUMMARY: For large events in the Chile/Bolivia border region (Mw>=7.5)
strong far-field aftershock sequences appear to be the norm.
It is expected that some far-field triggering will occur event
with this Mw 6.4+ event, however.
The most interesting events could occur in the NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OCEAN where such earthquake have usually followed Chile
mainshocks within a week.
The pattern of highly significant felt shocks in the CENTRAL
PLAINS of the U.S. following Chile earthquakes is expected to
continue. A felt event in the region of the Central Plains from
TEXAS to So. Dakota and from EASTERN COLORADO to Missouri
is considered highly likely in the next week and most likely
on March 31, 2002." (Emphasis later added by editor in Capital letters) GLOBAL The strongest earthquake of the past 24 hours was the Taiwan event
which was highly destructive in northern Taiwan and was reported on
in yesterday's report as well as in a special FFA forecast. GSR currently
gives Ms 7.3 to this event, NEIS M 7.1. At least 5 have been reported
killed and hundreds injured. Many more deaths are expected as buildings
which collapsed at the height of the workday have not yet been searched.
Fires, collapsing construction cranes and collapsing buildings were
responsible for most deaths. At least 200 aftershocks have already been
recorded. For a news account see: http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/03/31/taiwan.quake/index.html
The strongest event outside the northern Atlantic ocean that has
thus far been reported by a teleseismic agency is a Mb 4.9 on the
Chiapas Mexico/Guatemala border several hours ago. This earthquake
appears to be a FFA of the Chile earthquake, occurring at 43 degrees
from that mainshock and was identified as a likely aftershock in the
FFA forecast:
"43-45 degrees: Guatemala, Chiapas, Mexico ..." A small Ml 2.8 at 71 degrees from Chile was also noted in the Azores. The only other event listed today (thus far) was in the New
Ireland region (Ms 4.5). This event was 43 degrees from the Taiwan
mainshock and may be considered an FFA of that earthquake.
U.S./CANADA The strongest earthquakes in the U.S. or Canada which has been
listed today occurred in the northwest Wyoming region south of
Jackson Lake (near Hoback Junction) just south of Yellowstone N.P.
This event of Ml 3.5 (and many aftershocks of Ml>=2) reinvigorated the
swarm which had begun following the Hindu Kush earthquake on March
25 with a Ml 3.4 and aftershocks. Today's Ml 3.5 is the largest
event recorded in the area in at least 5 years since the USBR put
in a local seismic network. The region had been expected to see
increased FFA activity from Taiwan as in the forecast: "Possible Events (Ml>=3) in the U.S. and Canada include: ...Yellowstone ..."
California/Nevada was generally quiet today. There were 7
events of Ml>=2 in the region since the last daily report.
Two (Ml 2.3 and 2.1) occurred in the Geysers/Petaluma area of
northern California, one in the Simi Valley west of Los Angeles
(Ml 2.3); one near Burney (Ml 2.2) and several in central California
near the Pinnacles (Ml 2.2) and Coalinga (Ml 2.3). Only one event
was recorded in the Calexico region today (Ml 2.2).
Other areas of the U.S. and Canada were not reporting due to
the weekend and holiday, but will resume operations early next week. NEW ZEALAND Two earthquakes occurred in New Zealand today in the Ml>=3.5 range.
Both appeared to be along the east coast of North Island south of
Hawke's Bay. At least one was subject to an excellent forecast. The
other has not yet been parameterized by IGNS.
The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html
GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS The geomagnetic field remained at unstable to quiet conditions
today. A short, moderate geomagnetic storm was recorded between
18:00 and 21:00 UT, but did not require a seismic watch to be
called. GOES 8 appeared to be having difficulty in the past
several hours. A malfunction may be to blame for the current
readings on this satellite.
No M- or X-class solar flares were recorded today.
Flare # START MAX END CLASS
For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20020331events.txt
TIDAL EFFECTS April 03 is the twenty-first day after the beginning of the new lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are: Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
Central California MB>=0.0 37 2.4 0.04
Central California MB>=3.0 18 2.2 0.05
Central US MB>=1.0 79 3.4 0.01
East US MB>=1.0 12 2.2 0.05
N So. America MB>=4.0 19 2.1 0.05
Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 88 3.4 0.01
San Andreas MB>=0.0 17 2.8 0.02
San Andreas MB>=2.0 64 2.9 0.02
San Andreas MB>=3.0 38 2.7 0.02
Geysers MB>=0.0 7 2.6 0.03
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 62 2.8 0.02
Utah MB>=0.0 11 2.1 0.05
Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:
Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level
China MB>=4.0 -19 -2.3 0.05
Global MB>=6.0 -11 -1.9 0.05
NW Europe MB>=4.0 -11 -2.4 0.04
TOMORROW IN EARTHQUAKE HISTORY
GLOBAL: The following events of Mw>=7 have occurred on this date in
recorded history: MO DA HR MN SC YEAR LATIT LONGIT DEP MW LOCATION 4 1 0 0 0 1170 45.700 26.600 150 7.0 Romania/Bulgaria
Identified in A new Catalog of Strong Earthquakes in the USSR
from Ancient times through 1977, detail are not available. 4 1 19 6 9 1927 -20.000 -177.500 400 7.1 Tonga Islands
4 1 2 9 15 1936 4.500 126.500 60 7.7 Mindanao, Philippines
This moderate earthquake did not kill in the Philippines, but
an earthquake later in the day (Ms 6.8) did kill 104 in China. 4 1 14 18 8 1943 -6.500 105.500 60 7.0 So. of Java
4 1 12 28 54 1946 52.800 -163.500 60 7.4 Unimak Islands, Aleutians
This earthquake has been recalcualted and was apparently much larger
than originally believed. IT occurred south of Unimak Island, Alaska.
Minor damage ocurred to Navy buildins a short distance inland from
Scotch Cap Lighthouse on the soutwest coast of the island. A few
minutes after the earthquake a tsunami destroyed the lighthous
and took lives of the five attendants. Effects clearly indicated
that the wave reached a height of 90 to 100 feet. Minor wave damage in
the Aleutians occurred at Dutch Harbor and at Ikatan Island. Many
aftershocks were felt, principally on Ikatan Island. Aftershocks were
also reported from Chignik, Cold Bay, Sanak Island and the Shumagin
Islands. The great distance between the instrumental epicenter and the
aftershock locations suggests they may not have originated at the
point of the mainshock.
The tsunami effects were disastrous in the Hawaiian Island (called
the Laupahoehoe Tragedy of 1946). 173 lives were lost and damage
was estimated at $25 million. A major portion of the damage occurred
at Hilo. The wave was also noted in the Society and Marquesas Islands
and at many points on the Pacific shores of North and South America. 4 1 15 18 5 1961 41.500 78.000 0 7.2 Kirgizstan/Xinjiang
4 1 0 42 2 1968 32.283 132.533 30 7.8 Kyushu, Japan area
Minor property damage occurred at Kyushu where one person died and
22 were injured. A 2.3-meter tsunami was generated on the east
coast of Kyushu. It destroyed four homes and capsized several
fishing boats. 4 1 17 56 23 1998 -0.544 99.261 56 7.0 So. of Sumatera
Felt strongly in Padang. Felt in Singapore and in the Kuala Lumpur
area. U.S./CANADA Following are events of Mb>=5 which have occurred in this region on
this date. The Big event on this date in U.S. history was the deadly
earthquake/tsunami of April 1, 1946 (described above). Following
is an excerpt from the book: "April Fool's .. the Laupahoehoe Trageday
of 1946 An Oral History. It is an account by a survivor - Bunji
Fujimoto. Mr Fujimoto went on to serve in the Korean war and was
a laboratory technician. His family still lives in the area where
the tsunami hit. " My name is Bunji Fujimoto. I'm a 1947 graduate of Laupahoehoe High
School down at the point. I remember April 1st, 1946 pretty clearly
because it was one of the worst days of our lives. We had just come
from spring vacation and we were coming down to school
on the bus from Ninole, where I lived. As we were coming down th
cliff making a turn from Laupahoehoe, somebody started yelling,
"Ohhh, ther's no water in the ocean". Being that it was April 1st,
April Fool's Day, half of us didn't believe what they were saying,
so we didn't look. Then, because others were quite insistent, we
saw the water receding out. That was probably seven in the morning
or so. Instead of going out to our regular hangouts in the school
cafeteria or wherever we sat around before schoolstarted, we went
down towards the park to see what it was all about. Then we noticed
that the waves had started to come in. It came up to the monument,
and then it stopped and went back out. So, we thought, "Well, I
guess that's it" so we went back, most of us to the school grounds, but
a bunch of them were still staying there. I went up to the school
as I recall and there weren't too many of the early students around
where we usually hanged out, because the water was acting up again.
It started receding out, so most of us went down to see again. I
was in the park; I didn't want to go out of the school grounds because
I didn't want to get scoldings from the Teachers saying "Home come you
left the school grounds?" or something to that effect s0 .. A whole bunch of
us was around in the park are looking out and there was another big
group out across the road. Bushes and things were over ther and the water
was receding way out, much more than the first time around, and gradually
I say the water coming back in. It seems like it was just filling up
where it had left earlier. The key thing is that the wave wasn't a
great big wave that people kinda think of, a huge wave coming in,
nothing like that. The wave was like filling a cup with water, but when
it reaches the brim it doesn't stop. That's what happened here. When it
reached the high point on the banks, it just kept coming. The wave
went right over the bank and we knew we were in trouble. All of us started
running away, trying to run towards higher ground. We were fortunate, most
of us in the park had enough time to get towards teh school, and those who
made it there were all right. Many who were running fell down and got
caught in the grass and got caught by water coming in. I imagine it
was about 20 feet high or more.
I distinctly remember two things from when I was running away. First,
there were bleachers fro watching baseball in the corner of the park. I
saw the bleachers collapse, like a house of match sticks, and just
fall apart. I can recall the big timber that they used for braces
all falling apart making terrifying cracking sounds.
I understand some of the boys were in there. The other thing that
I remember before I ran up to high ground was seeing one of the
teacher's cottages coming form the end of the park. It was coming
through the coconut trees, which were falling down and the the
house went sailing right through. That's about all I remember
seeing besides seeing a whole bunch other students running."
William Choy Hee another eyewitness to the tsunami who was
a county worker at the time recalled: "They could see the water build up and rise while they
counted the surge. They could also see the ocean bottom for about
300 years out. The ocean floor was covered with a beautiful red
colored moss. There was also a lot of fish lying stranded on the
bottom. In the park, William picked up some fish because they
were flopping around and were very attractive to a fisherman.
But when he say the sight of everyone trapped by the wave, crying
as they were pulled out, he threw all the fish he had back onto
the ground.
Charlie Spencer joined them while they were watching. They
thought they were far enough back to be safe, but then
Charlie said, "Aye, it's coming, it's coming." They ran up
the hill. They could see the kids and teachers standing on
a hill by the landing. The wave came in swirled back and
caught all thosed kids and teachers inside as it receded.
One occurrence that stands out in Bill's memory is watching
a boulder bouncing through the park on the water. There was only
four inches of water and the boulder must have weighed about
400 pounds, bill said, so you can imagine the pressure
and the power of the wave." 4 1 19 0 0 1917 40.000 -118.000 0 5.1 Montana/Idaho
4 1 10 40 58 1941 55.800 -153.800 0 6.5 Southern Alaska
4 1 10 40 59 1941 56.000 -153.500 0 6.5 Southern Alaska
4 1 23 43 42 1945 34.000 -120.017 0 5.4 Off So. California
4 1 12 28 54 1946 52.750 -163.500 25 7.4 Unimak Islands, Aleutians
4 1 19 21 8 1951 40.470 -125.300 0 5.0 Off Coast of No. California
4 1 0 38 0 1952 48.000 -113.800 0 5.6 Montana/Idaho
Northwestern Montana. A large area of Montana, Idaho and southern
British Columbia was affected by this shock. Walls cracked and
chimneys twisted and fell at Flathead Lake, Mont. Slight damage
at Eureka and Swan Lake, Montana. 4 1 11 35 30 1957 51.000 -173.000 0 5.8 Andreanoff Islands, Aleutians
4 1 18 18 30 1959 39.717 -120.200 10 5.8 Central California
Most of the serious property damage occurred near Loyalton, where
several chimneys fell, windows were borken and plaster and walls were
cracked. Felt over a large area of northeast California and Nevada. 4 1 14 12 0 1960 49.000 -129.500 0 5.0 Vancouver Island area
4 1 12 11 60 1962 63.400 -150.700 140 5.5 Central Alaska
4 1 0 1 12 1964 60.370 -146.480 23 5.1 Central Alaska
4 1 3 23 17 1964 57.200 -151.300 25 5.1 Southern Alaska
4 1 20 13 8 1964 58.270 -149.780 24 5.0 Southern Alaska
Aftershocks of the great Alaska earthquake of MArch 28, 1964. 4 1 9 13 14 1985 47.900 -115.800 0 5.1 Montana/Idaho
Cracked water main at East Helena. Felt (V) at Belt, Big Arm and
throughout much of western Montana including Kalispell, Missoula
and Helena. 4 1 7 12 27 1995 53.613 -164.438 33 5.1 Unimak Islands, Aleutians Following are earthquakes which have been reported today: ASIA O: 31MAR2002 06:52:50 24.4N 122.2E MB=7.1 NEI TAIWAN REGION
O: 31MAR2002 06:53 24.1N 121.8E Mj=7.3 NIED TAIWAN_REGION, Japan
O: 31MAR2002 14:52:54 24.2N 122.2E ML=6.8 TAI Ilan, Taiwan O: 01APR2002 01:09:43 24.4N 121.8E ML=4.8 TAI Ilan, Taiwan
O: 1APR2002 06:09:53 24.4N 121.9E ML=4.5 TAI Ilan, Taiwan
O: 31MAR2002 16:02:21 24.4N 121.9E ML=4.9 TAI Ilan, Taiwan O: 31MAR2002 17:09:32 23.8N 122.2E Ms=3.7 GSSC TAIWAN REGION O: 30MAR2002 12:50:40 9.6S 117.7E MR=4.8 AEIC1 Sumbawa Island area O: 30MAR2002 12:40:50 8.6S 115.2E MR=5.4 AEIC1 DENPASAR
O: 30MAR2002 08:16:20 8.4S 115.1E MR=5.1 AEIC1 N TABANAN
O: 30MAR2002 07:20:50 8.6S 115.1E MR=5.0 AEIC1 SW TABANAN O: 29MAR2002 08:55:00 5.1S 101.4E MR=5.0 AEIC1 SW BENGKULU SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS O: 31MAR2002 14:09:29 5.3S 153.5E Ms=4.5 GSSC NEW IRELAND CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA O: 30MAR2002 23:50:42 20.0N 105.3W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA JALISCO-NAYARIT, MEXICO O: 30MAR2002 10:34:51 14.6N 93.1W ML=4.6 SSN GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO O: 30MAR2002 22:38:06 9.6N 84.4W MC=3.6 CASC Costa Rica, Central America
O: 31MAR2002 18:24:59 9.4N 84.5W MC=2.9 CASC Costa Rica, Central America
O: 30MAR2002 22:38:09 9.4N 84.6W MC=4.3 SIS Costa Rica, Central America
O: 31MAR2002 18:24:48 9.2N 85.5W ML=3.3 SIS Costa Rica, Central America O: 30MAR2002 23:51:43 12.5N 87.6W MC=3.2 SIS Nicaragua, Central America
O: 31MAR2002 01:40:58 12.6N 86.8W MC=3.5 CASC Nicaragua, Central America O: 31MAR2002 01:41:35 6.4N 82.6W ML=3.6 SIS Panama, Central America O: 31MAR2002 03:35:03 11.5N 85.8W MC=3.5 SIS Nicaragua, Central America O: 1APR2002 02:05:42 14.3N 86.4W ML=3.2 SIS Honduras, Central America NEW ZEALAND O: 31MAR2002 12:16 40.4S 176.6E ML=3.5 IGNS South of Porangahau, N.Z. O: 29MAR2002 05:30:42 45.2S 168.7E MB=4.0 QED SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND. O: 27MAR2002 04:20:33 37.2S 178.0E MB=4.0 QED OFF E COAST OF N ISLAND N.Z. OCEANIA O: 1APR2002 02:15:16 54.0N 35.3W Mb=4.5 LDG REYKJANES RIDGE
O: 31MAR2002 22:49:12 53.8N 35.4W MS=5.0 GSR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
O: 31MAR2002 19:07:52 54.3N 35.1W Ms=4.4 GSSC REYKJANES RIDGE
O: 31MAR2002 19:07:49 53.8N 35.3W Mb=5.0 NEIA REYKJANES RIDGE
EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
O: 31MAR2002 20:54:44 40.2N 29.3E ML=3.6 KAN BURSA, TURKEY O: 31MAR2002 19:24:08 36.9N 36.0E ML=3.4 KAN HATAY, TURKEY O: 26MAR2002 11:37:33 37.3N 21.1E MB=3.7 QED SOUTHERN GREECE. O: 1APR2002 02:30:59 39.4N 38.3E ML=3.4 KAN SIVAS, TURKEY
O: 1APR2002 02:28:42 39.5N 38.2E ML=3.7 KAN SIVAS, TURKEY U.S/CANADA CALIFORNIA/NEVADA O: 31MAR2002 07:33:33 36.5N 121.0W ML=1.8 NCSN SE of Pinnacles, CA O: 31MAR2002 10:23:45 35.2N 118.6W ML=2.0 SCSN NW of Tehachapi, CA O: 31MAR2002 08:29:15 34.1N 116.7W ML=2.5 SCSN ESE of Mt. San Gorgonio, CA O: 31MAR2002 11:44:56 31.7N 116.1W ML=2.6 SCSN S of Ocotillo, CA O: 31MAR2002 16:53:23 32.8N 115.7W ML=2.2 SCSN W of El Centro, CA O: 31MAR2002 18:37:52 34.3N 118.8W ML=2.3 SCSN NW of Simi Valley, CA O: 31MAR2002 15:48:29 41.0N 121.7W ML=2.2 NCSN NNW of Burney, CA O: 31MAR2002 15:50:15 37.5N 118.8W ML=1.9 NCSN SW of Toms Place, CA O: 31MAR2002 16:41:41 38.9N 122.5W ML=2.2 NCSN ENE of Lower Lake, CA O: 31MAR2002 18:23:27 36.2N 120.4W ML=2.3 NCSN NNW of Coalinga, CA O: 01APR2002 02:28:57 36.6N 121.2W ML=2.2 NCSN NW of Pinnacles, CA PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA O: 31MAR2002 18:42:36 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.3 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY
O: 31MAR2002 19:32:47 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.6 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY
O: 31MAR2002 20:18:01 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.6 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY
O: 31MAR2002 22:32:10 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.0 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY
O: 1APR2002 00:58:22 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.4 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY
O: 1APR2002 01:06:59 43.2N 110.8W MD=2.4 USBR SSW of Hoback Jct, WY O: 31MAR2002 18:35:01 43.2N 110.7W MB=3.5 NEI WYOMING EASTERN U.S./CANADA O: 29MAR2002 14:30:44 38.9N 107.4W MB=2.8 QED COLORADO. O: 23MAR2002 06:34:32 40.5N 106.9W MB=3.1 QED COLORADO. ALASKA O: 31MAR2002 13:54:13 58.0N 151.5W ML=3.1 AEIC Kodiak, Alaska HAWAII
|
