The low end magnitudes make me nervous. For example, a prediction for M1.5 to 2.5 may get a low probability of occurrence because the low end magnitude is not always getting detected and located, and the catalogue being used for probablity does not include these, even if detected and located. So, my question is: is the low magnitude earthquake really as unlikely as the high magnitude one? If some percent of earthquakes are random within a diffuse plate boundary, there will be 1,000 (?) times as many M2s as M5s.......Chris