Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass
Posted by Petra Challus on March 25, 2002 at 22:04:54:

Hi EQF,

Have you ever heard that saying, "It's all in a word." Well, there's a lot of truth in it.

I am greatly puzzled about this statement you made in your post:

"The philosophy which appears to be popular here is that forecast data are only worthwhile when they are posted before an earthquake occurs. I strongly disagree with that."

The standards set forth by the scientific community to meet the criteria for an accurate and acceptable prediction are not a philosophy. They are scientific criteria. We who wish to make predictions here are expected to meet that criteria in order to be given credit for predicting an earthquake. You can call it a prediction or a forecast or whatever, but unless and until it meets that criteria, you don't get a qualified hit.

But on the other hand, something else can be said when one does not wish to make a forecast or a prediction and it is an advisory. You said in your post you had some inklings that something might happen around the 21st and you could have posted something to that effect. Not being as specific as a prediction or forecast, but more or less a heads up. There's plenty of room here to do just that kind of thing and I hope you'll feel encouraged to do so, if you please in the future.

Any input that can be gathered may often be supported by other data that another poster may find in correlation and together as two or a group, some benefit might come of such an endeavor.

That's what used to happen on this board when it was primarily used by earthquake sensitives. Despite some who may say that we "caught" onto something because someone else said it, really wasn't true. We worked as a team and the team did darn good too. But sharing was what made it special, enjoyable and something worthwhile.

Petra


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Shan's Prediction for Hindu Kush comes to pass - Don In Hollister  00:31:39 - 3/26/2002  (14126)  (1)
        ● Earthquake forecasting programs and credibility - EQF  09:06:38 - 3/26/2002  (14139)  (0)