Lowell;

The program is correct as far as I can see.

The situation is this; Canie predicted a fairly large quake, mag 4+. The program sets the outermost lower limit to 0.3 less, so it only looks for 3.7 or better.

Quakes without mag. are included but since the best fit is the largest quake, they get ignored.

The probability quoted is for the quakes being examined so the little ones don't affect the answer.

Odds on larger events are indeed small there.

Roger