I actually do not "predict" earthquakes in the usual sense of the word. Instead, if any of several different types of warning signals indicates to me that a destructive earthquake could be about to occur somewhere I will usually attempt to determine the location of the fault zone where the signal had its origins. And if appropriate I may try to send a warning to the government of the country where that fault zone is located. International disaster mitigation groups would also probably be advised to prepare for a destructive earthquake. My forecast time windows are simply estimates which are based on past experiences. And they are often not especially accurate.

Signals which appear to be pointing to U.S. West Coast earthquakes are detected fairly often. But it takes so much time to link signals with fault zones that I usually make the effort only when I believe that a major earthquake could be about to occur. If I thought that one were headed for the U.S. I would certainly try to circulate a warning for it. But destructive earthquakes here in the U.S. are fairly rare. The last one that I can recall hearing about occurred more than a year ago in the Seattle area.

I am guessing that with my present slow, inefficient, manual precursor signal and earthquake data comparison procedures I might be able to generate moderately good forecast data for perhaps 1 in 3 fairly destructive earthquakes and hopefully better than 1 in 2 highly destructive ones. That means that quite a few would be missed. But even a success rate as low as 1 in 3 would still mean that there is a chance for at least some lives to be saved.

If I can get an earthquake forecasting computer program which I have been discussing developed then I believe that success rates for my own forecasting program and perhaps programs which some other people are running should improve dramatically.

Finally, I believe that with all of the forecasting programs which are presently operational around the world including my own, the capability really does exist at this time for researchers to forecast a good percentage of our global destructive earthquakes and save some lives. But such efforts need to get much better organized.