Say What?

I read a quote sometime ago where it said something like, "Simplify, Simplify, ya da ya da, ya da, ie: keep things simple. Then there's that other one that says, "cut to the chase." I rather like that one. Its not demeaning, but it means hurry up, get with it, shorten it and make it a one liner that rules.

I hate computers. They are a necessary evil, but gosh darn it, they break down in all sorts of ways and the minute anyone says download to me, I break out in a rash. But there are people like Roger Hunter who really know their stuff. He doesn't waste any time. If you can explain it to him, he can program it. There are Angels everywhere.

One thing for sure, Don doesn't have any kind of big computer at his house. It's just like mine, a Dell. They work really well and do what you need and yet, despite this obvious lack of fancy stuff, the guy makes earthquake hits like crazy. He says he eats strange food before he attempts these feats, but so far he hasn't mentioned having to feed the Dell anything.

Fortunately, he likes to write and share stuff with the rest of us, even me, a person who doesn't understand most of it, so we are never left in the dark in knowing that he has forecasted a quake. He hangs his stuff right out there, in front of the board and the reading public (whoever they are) and takes the praise along with lack thereof. As you know, this takes courage. I've been there done that, been wrong more than right, but he does it better than me. Despite his disadvantages of not having a whiz banger computer program, a strange diet, a weird friend like me, he shows no obvious signs of Ivory Tower Syndrome. Good thing to, as I would have found a way to help him down.

I don't think I told you or anyone here about Sammy. He's a really tiny cute little teddy bear. I take him with me sometimes when Don and I do field work because he is in cartoon development. Sammy The Seismic Bear goes out into Seismoland and tells the kids via cartoons about what happens on his adventures. While some think they know everything and everything, kids don't. They like to learn and coloring books are a good educational tool. But they are also "simple." Sammy won't need a computer with a fancy program in the future either. He only says simple truths. I'm so glad I didn't take him to the cemetery at Parkfield the last time around or he might have been a simple meal for a big, bad dog. I could just imagine him saying, "Oooooooo No!" I took him to Bozoland (Jack In The Box), but he didn't much care for it.

We've all heard that if something is heard repeatedly most people will believe it, and some people will act on it. It works for TV commercials quite well. But I learned how to fix that, I hit the mute button on all of them. I am just so tired of hearing how good this that is or how good that is. That's means I've had to "buy into" the idea that it was worthy of trying. Of course everyone keeps being told that TV commercials are not at a higher volume that TV programs. (We are all imaging this experience. Right?) In print media in time we begin to realize we are seeing the same message over and over again, so when we see it again, we know, just turn the page, because it is the same old garbage. Meaningless, nothingness.

So let me "cut to the chase" here and now. The only thing everyone on this board is asking of you is that when you make a prediction, make it in print, in advance and then when you get a hit, you can be acknowledged for your success.

While you may be into development of sophisticated computer programs, good for you, but most of us here don't want to learn about them. We just want to talk about forecasting/prediction and what other facts or subjects are at hand in relationship to geophysical activity. How about joining the club?

Petra Challus
Copyright@Challus Media 2002