Hi Roger,
I think the magnitude limit is a bit severe. This would tend to produce earthquake
predictions for "magnitude 3 and up" rather than a more limited range. Under your
restriction an earthquake predictor might make a forecast saying magnitude 4.5-5.5.
A magnitude 6.5 occurs even if he/she were exact on all other parameters, his forecast
would not even be considered. On the other hand, if the forecaster had said 4.5 and up
there would be a perfect match. Since earthquakes at higher magnitude are quite
rare compared with those at lower magnitude, a forecast for a location with a smaller
magnitude than occurred should be considered. I would say for consideration,
the lower magnitude limit should be no more than 0.3 units below the given range,
however the upper magnitude limit should not be restricted for consideration. We
want reasonable predictions and do not want to encourage predictors to be vague.
The other limits seem appropriate.