Earthquake forecasting computer program – preliminary discussion
Posted by EQF on March 16, 2002 at 06:23:44:

This is a preliminary discussion of a proposal which I am planning to send to a number of federal, state, and city officials and scientists here in the U.S. If you would like to comment on this information then I will consider what you have to say before I circulate the actual proposal. It will probably be circulated on or after March 18, 2002.

If you live near an earthquake fault zone then I believe that the response of government officials to that proposal might have some impact on whether or not you will receive a timely warning before a future earthquake occurs near you. And so, I recommend that you give this matter some thought.

Seismic Activity And Storm Data
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/131.html
http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/132.html

Those Web pages contain lists of earthquake and precursor data. To tell where an earthquake might be about to occur I compare precursor data like those with similar data for past earthquakes. When there is a good match it indicates to me that another earthquake might be about to occur near where the previous one occurred.

At the moment I am using a slow and inefficient manual process to compare those data. I feel that this could be done with much greater speed and efficiency by a computer program. The one that I have in mind for doing the original research would generate data for the positions of the sun and the moon in the sky, and the locations of ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide crests and troughs at the times when earthquakes occurred and when precursor signals were detected. Once the program was running, data comparison routines would be added to it.

What I am going to recommend is that government agencies allocate funds for the development of that type of program. The basic data generation programs already exist. But they would need to be combined into a single program if possible. My precursor data could then be used to develop the data comparison routines. Once the program was running other types of precursor data could be tested to see how well they work with the program. A university research group might do the actual program development work.

This is not something which might or might not work. In my opinion the manual data comparison procedures which I am presently using are already producing moderately good results. And so the first version of the computer program should work at least that well.

If government agencies are not interested in providing funding for the development of the program then I will probably try to get funding from some other source such as a scientific project oriented foundation.

These are my personal opinions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake forecasting computer program – preliminary discussion - Roger Hunter  09:51:54 - 3/16/2002  (13780)  (0)