Practical difficulties
Posted by R.Shanmugasundaram on March 14, 2002 at 23:40:21:


Lowell,

100 percent I agreed with you if I given more place the value of prediction will be less.

I reproduced part of my recent record in my web page, which reads as follows:

---------
PREDICTION DT.12 MARCH 02:

HARYANA (DELHI) - ANDAMAN ISLANDS (REGION 1)
AND / OR
PHILIPPINES(LUZON)-SUMATARA-JAPAN (REGION 2)
MAY EXPERIENCE AROUND 5M QUAKE
BETWEEN 10 AM IST TODAY AND WITHIN 6 DAYS
MOST PROBABLE DATE 13 MARCH 2002

RESULTS:

NEIC REPORTED THE FOLLOWING:
2002/03/14 06:12:42 6.58N 127.31E 33.0 5.0 C PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION (NEW)
2002/03/13 17:37:47 22.87N 142.30E 200.0 4.3 B VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION (NEW)
2002/03/13 00:25:39 30.20N 142.79E 33.0 4.5 B SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN (NEW)
2002/03/12 20:51:15 13.98N 93.15E 33.0 5.0 B ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2002/03/12 16:37:38 5.93N 124.32E 33.0 4.5 B MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES (NEW)
2002/03/12 14:58:52 2.09N 126.52E 33.0 4.5 B NORTHERN MOLUCCA SEA (NEW)
------------

If you go through the above, most of the places where I expected quakes were occurred
WITH EXPECTED INTENSITY. If I mention one quake at a place I missed to mention another
quake at another place at the same period. Decoding the shadow precursor is a complex task
when working with one observatory. So that I insist area wise analysis is necessary to
segregate them.

Though I have given my time window for 6 days (maximum), most of the occurrence lies
within 2 days only. If you noticed all the above quakes were occurred between 10 to 50 hours
time window, after the prediction.


Now what I am doing is seeing an object with only one eye. Without stereovision we can't feel
the three dimensional effect. Like one seismic center entering all the data throughout
the world. Till this computer period, measuring the details of a Quake with one seismic
center is impossible.

Any thoughts?


SHAN
15/3/02