More on Don's Japan forecast
Posted by Lowell on March 11, 2002 at 23:41:46:

Well, I'm sure glad to see that someone else is willing to take over these evaluations. Maybe Chris in
Suburbia's or Roger Hunter's will be less biased than mine (just kidding- your efforts are very welcome, and like Chris I would love to see an independent evaluation of Don's forecasts). But until Roger gets his
Program running, , I will continue to report thing as I see them. So here is the latest:

The following earthquake is being reported from Japan by NIED:
Source:
http://argent.geo.bosai.go.jp/freesia/event/hypo/joho.html

O: 10MAR2002 14:23 37.0N 139.8E Mj 3.5 Northern Tochigi Pref.
Don had forecast the following on March 8:
F: 11MAR2002 +/-2 days 37.0N 140.0E Mj 4-5 West of Kuroiso, Japan

This occurred 30 minutes before March 11 (JST) within 15 km of the expected epicenter. That's pretty
Good guesswork, IMHO, even if the magnitude is slightly smaller than expected. Some forecasts
Are easier to evaluate than others, I guess.

Don's Forecast had read:

Re: Don's Ibaraki, Japan forecast and today's (and other) events
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 08, 2002 at 14:30:43:

In Reply to: Don's Ibaraki, Japan forecast and today's (and other) events posted by Lowell on March 08, 2002 at 13:36:35:

Hi Lowell. I see I didn't do so hot with the Japan forecast so I figured as long as I was in the neighborhood I would take a look see as to what might be in the offering for the next couple of days.

Guess what? I found a 4.0 to 5.0 quake at 37.0N/140.0E. This is about 10Km west of Kuroiso, Japan, or about 50Km west of Kita-Ibaraki.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: More on Don's Japan forecast - Roger Hunter  10:06:16 - 3/12/2002  (13599)  (1)
        ● Re: More on Don's Japan forecast - lowell  10:19:51 - 3/12/2002  (13600)  (0)