An earthquake occurred in the Ibaraki Prefectorate , Japan this afternoon of Mj 4.3 which reminded
Me that this forecast had yet to be evaluated. Today's event, reported by JMA is:

O: 08MAR2002 17:39 36.0 N 141.7 E Mj 4.3 FAR_E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF
Don's forecast had been for
F: 02MAR2002 +/- 2d 36.8N 140.4 E Mj 4.0-5.0 Kita-Ibaraki (within 65 km)

This is not a particularly good match to today's event as it lies more than 100 km away and is
4 days out of the time window.

Two events did occur on the day expected which were close, but smaller than expected:

O: 02MAR2002 23:18 35.7N 139.6E Mj 3.5 FAR_E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF
O: 02MAR2002 22:40 37.3N 142.2E Mj 3.6 FAR_E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF

These earthquakes, while on the right day are smaller and further from the forecast
Epicenter than expected. Interestingly, Don's forecast event falls midway between
These two epicenters.

A further earthquake unlisted at the time of Don's forecast occurred on Feb. 25.

O: 25FEB2002 13:15 36.4N 140.8 Mj 4.7 FAR_E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF

This event is about 65 km from the forecast epicenter and within the magnitude range, but
Is 3 days out of the expected time window.

This appears to be a semi-successful forecast - a near hit.

Don's Forecast:

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/13284.html

Kita-Ibaraki, Japan Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on February 25, 2002 at 21:40:12:

Magnitude: 4.0-5.0JA
From: 02/28/2002UTC - To: 03/04/2002UTC
Location: Kita-Ibaraki, Japan
Lat: 36.8N - Long: 140.4E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. Just though I would take a trip to my favorite country for some Sake and Sashimi. Looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 at 36.8N/140.4E. This is about 40Km west of Kita-Ibaraki, or about 160Km NNE of Tokyo, Japan. Should occur on 03/02/2002. The window will open on 02/28/2002 and will close on 03/04/2002. The radius on this will be 65Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town