Re: Don's San Jose forecast and this afternoon's event
Posted by Roger Hunter on March 07, 2002 at 17:29:04:

Lowell;

I don't imagine Don is going to do any such thing. I meant only that he was getting good enough to do it.

My best advice would be "Dont't do it"

Anyone wishing to make credible public predictions would need an established track record of successful predictions impartially recorded and evaluated, the sort of thing I was doing at one time. This would have to be an inclusive list of all predictions made, to avoid "data selection" criticism.

Once that hurdle was passed, you would have the enormous risk of lawsuits from every side whether you were right or wrong. Especially if you were wrong. Realtors would be after you for loss of property values or sales as would property owners. People who get injured while fleeing from an expected quake would hold you responsible. On and on.

A better course wopuld be to work thru state or municipal governments, letting them handle the notices and such. The problem would be in establishing credibility because such bodies would want VERY high probabilities before acting.

I hope this helps.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Don's San Jose forecast and this afternoon's event - Todd  22:44:52 - 3/7/2002  (13496)  (1)
        ● Re: Don's San Jose forecast and this afternoon's event - Lowell  23:02:28 - 3/7/2002  (13498)  (1)
           ● Re: Don's San Jose forecast and this afternoon's event - Don In Hollister  23:25:41 - 3/7/2002  (13501)  (0)