Don's Davao City, Philippines forecast and the Mindanao earthquake
Posted by Lowell on March 05, 2002 at 23:36:06:

Well, Don,
Looks like you did pretty well today on your forecasts - with the usual magnitude problem.
The most impressive is probably the Davao City, Philippines forecast issued on Feb. 28, 2002.
The forecast was :

F: Mar 08 2002 +/- 2days 6.4N 126.5E +/- 65 km Ml 4.0-5.0 Davao City, Philippines
O: Mar 05 6.1N 124.2E Mw 7.2 Mindanao, Philippines

While the earthquake was not exactly located being about 200 km west of the epicenter and
Was much larger than expected, the reasons I am impressed are :

1) This is your first forecast for the Philippines. Not bad for a first try - you identified the location
and approximate time of a significant event several days in advance.
2) If I had been a citizen of Davao, I would have felt this 7.2 earthquake there approximately
as if it had been a Mb 5 near my city. The citizen would have been properly warned, had he
been reading this board.

Don's original forecast was post # 13356 - follows

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/13356.html

Davao City, Philippines Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on February 28, 2002 at 13:01:41:

Magnitude: 4.0-5.0Ml
From: 03/06/2002UTC - To: 03/10/2002UTC
Location: Davao City, Philippines
Lat: 6.4N - Long: 126.5E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. Looks like I'm going to get my feet wet.

Looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 off the coast of the Philippines. Should occur at 6.4N/126.5E. This is about 170Km SE of Davao
City. Should occur on 03/08/2002. The window opens on 03/06/2002 and will close on 03/10/2002. The radius for this will
be 65Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town



Follow Ups:
     ● Effects of the Mindanao quake on Davao City - Lowell  01:07:54 - 3/6/2002  (13447)  (1)
        ● Tsunami with Mindanao earthquake - Lowell  02:14:26 - 3/6/2002  (13449)  (0)