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Re: How to help the people in need?
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Posted by Lowell on March 04, 2002 at 11:36:33:
You are correct that no one is doing good short-term prediction at this time. Like a drug, it is necessary to do a long-term study of each forecast system before any hope can be raised that such and such a system can accurately forecast/predict earthquakes. There are many forecast systems which accurately forecast earthquakes but under analysis are no better than random, just as there are many drugs which look like they cure some disease, but which under closer analysis are no better than a placebo or do significant harm to other parts of the body while curing the disease. The reason for archived forecasts is so that such long-term analysis can be done on apparently successful techniques. Careful and long-term research is often needed to prove or disprove theories and claims. Now I put it to you and other board members. Which is more useful - a short-term prediction for a Magnitude 5 earthquake in an area where such events occur on average about once a week, or a 2-month forecast for a magnitude 7 where events occur on average every 25 years. In considering this, you should realize that both forecasts are successful. The question is which is more likely to be able to prepare people for a disaster?
Follow Ups:
● Re: How to help the people in need? - R.Shanmugasundaram 22:20:13 - 3/4/2002 (13432) (1)
● Re: How to help the people in need? - Lowell 23:24:24 - 3/4/2002 (13435) (0)
● Re: How to help the people in need? - Roger Hunter 13:12:08 - 3/4/2002 (13419) (0)
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