Posted by 2cents on February 16, 2002 at 20:56:51:
Hi Petra: It is no doubt a complex research project to undertake. I appreciate your stating what you believe may be happening which seems plausible in many ways. As things seem to stand right now, the lack of reproducibility is a hinderance to accepting that there may be a cause and effect relationship. Rigorous study and documentation of the results good or bad may shed more light on what the process is and how it may be part of the earthquake process. So, on the one hand it does not seem to be reliable but on the other hand maybe more study may change that. I believe that in going in this direction that just the fact that an ear tone (etc.) was heard in a particular place and time maybe useful in pursuing this topic. I don't agree that having the interpretation of the "listener" is a requirement for testing it's use in prediction. That is not to say that your path of using only the interpretation of the ear tone hearer is also not a valid study approach. What if the the tone hearer made an incorrect fault association ? This could lead to unreliability for prediction. On the other hand associating the event of the tone being heard to other physical events which are instrument time-stamped and detectable may lend more insight into the process as well. This is just a variation of a study pathway. Some might argue that you could strengthen your arguments by being able to relate them to other simultaneous occurring physical phenomena. For example what if the ELF tracker shows a spike around the same time that you heard an ear tone (especially around where you live)? This could be useful information that does not require the tone hearer's interpretation for use of the info. I do agree that sending out notices to gov't officials and all will have limited usefulness unless the reliability is demonstrated. After so many false alarms the recipients may tend to disregard the notices. However, others may still use the information to be on the lookout for other possible signs of an earthquake (eq. lights, gas emissions, etc.) Just my 2 cents worth.
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