Re: Tone generator
Posted by 2cents on January 02, 2002 at 15:06:50:

Hi EQF:

It is nice of you to ask.

However it is not necessary to do so since this is an open internet web-site open to anybody. The source web-site is not mine and only any restrictions posted to that web-site should be observed (presently there didn't appear to be any). If somebody posts something on the internet then I believe it becomes "public domain" unless a copyright is showing (which protects how an idea is expressed but not necessarily how somebody else may use the idea. Of course proper attribution to the originator is expected of any fair minded person. Hopefully this is accurately discerned.)

Obviously, the person running the web-site (NCH Swift Sound) is nice enough to provide a "free" downloadable tone generator. Obviously, they have their own reasons for doing so...and "good for them" whomever they are. It appears that they sell other software products and the free download may be a way to bring potential customers to their site to view their "for sale" products.

Anyway, as I have been known to express in the past (along with others), I believe that the "earthquake authorities" are stuck Per Se in the solution to this "earthquake prediction" problem. Not only are simple leads not being followed up but the emotional costs to some of the participants (who wish to pursue them) appears to be very high. "Career-Day" factors/considerations may also play into this as nobody wants to become a "laughing stock" of sorts. This area of science appears to have unique obstacles in place which have thwarted forward motion for some time, IMO. These obstacles actually facilitate "interlopers" :-) coming in and picking up the ball and running with it....

Others have cited a long list of great scientists who "followed their noses" (read "data") and just kept doing the "next logical step" until they arrived at a much better understanding of the problems and it's solution/modeling. As you know, the key is letting the data talk to you (and not vice versa). Of course, having your college degree pin you into a bullpen is no help either for this problem and it's solution,IMO.

As for myself, I had underestimated the teamwork and cross-pollination effect of information coming and going from all directions. The internent and people willing to donate their time and effort have made a big difference.

I generally believe that as people share what they know, the problem approaches a solution that much more rapidly. Your efforts in this direction obviously speak to this theme.

So far, I am fully in favor of sharing any and all information without restraint (though others may see reasons why some information in this area should be held close). I do believe that it is also OK for people to strive to "get credit" for their work as much as possible too. One way to achieve both goals is for people to publish what they have (when they are ready)...so we'll see how things develop in that regard.

In summary, I'm glad you are posting the tone generator link and hope that it helps add additional people to solving the problem to the degree they are able (as has no doubt already happened over the centuries....).

You may also wish to post the "correct time" link too (so folks can stamp the correct time to the event). (See http://www.time.gov/ )

I agree that 2002 might just be a big year for earthquake prediction ...especially so since it is "dead in the water" for many of the folks working this area (with a exception or two or three).

My 2cents (worth)