Don's Tokoroa, New Zealand forecast - completely successful
Posted by Lowell on December 30, 2001 at 12:05:05:

Hi Folks and Happy New Year,
While I don't have the ability to post long messages from here,
I thought it would be useful to say something about Don's Tokoroa
New Zealand earthquake forecast, which has been forgotten in light
of other interesting events in recent days.
Don Forecast the following event:

26-30DEC 65 km of 38.1S 175.6E Ml 2.5-4.0 Tokoroa New Zealand

QED is listing the following earthquakes:
Source:
ftp://ghtftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/weekly/qedevents.txt

26DEC2001 19:25:12 38.2S 175.7E Ml>=3.5 NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.

26DEC2001 11:11:19 38.7S 178.5E ML4.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.

A Ml 5.0 also occurred near the second location on Dec 22, 2001.

QED only lists New Zealand events of likely Magnitude >=3.5 so although
the first event is not given a magnitude is is most likely in this
range. The location of the first event is less than 15 km from the
forecast location and within the time and magnitude range given.
A completely successful forecast. Congratulations, Don on another
success.


On Dec 17, Don had posted the following:

Tokoroa, New Zealand Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on December 17, 2001 at 20:05:46:

Magnitude: 2.5-4.0Md
From: 12/26/2001UTC - To: 12/30/2001UTC
Location: Tokoroa, New Zealand
Lat: 38.1S - Long: 175.6E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. I guess if Jenny wants to feel this one she is going to have
to drive to it.

Looking for 2.5 to 4.0 quake at 38.1S/175.6E. This is about 35Km NW of
Tokoroa, New Zealand. Should occur on 12/28/2001. The window opens on 12/26/2001 and will close on 12/30/2001. The radius on this is 65Km.
Take Care…Don in creepy town