Posted by Lowell on December 30, 2001 at 12:05:05:
Hi Folks and Happy New Year, While I don't have the ability to post long messages from here, I thought it would be useful to say something about Don's Tokoroa New Zealand earthquake forecast, which has been forgotten in light of other interesting events in recent days. Don Forecast the following event: 26-30DEC 65 km of 38.1S 175.6E Ml 2.5-4.0 Tokoroa New Zealand QED is listing the following earthquakes: Source: ftp://ghtftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/weekly/qedevents.txt 26DEC2001 19:25:12 38.2S 175.7E Ml>=3.5 NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND. 26DEC2001 11:11:19 38.7S 178.5E ML4.0 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. A Ml 5.0 also occurred near the second location on Dec 22, 2001. QED only lists New Zealand events of likely Magnitude >=3.5 so although the first event is not given a magnitude is is most likely in this range. The location of the first event is less than 15 km from the forecast location and within the time and magnitude range given. A completely successful forecast. Congratulations, Don on another success. On Dec 17, Don had posted the following:
Tokoroa, New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on December 17, 2001 at 20:05:46: Magnitude: 2.5-4.0Md From: 12/26/2001UTC - To: 12/30/2001UTC Location: Tokoroa, New Zealand Lat: 38.1S - Long: 175.6E - Range: 65Km Hi All. I guess if Jenny wants to feel this one she is going to have to drive to it. Looking for 2.5 to 4.0 quake at 38.1S/175.6E. This is about 35Km NW of Tokoroa, New Zealand. Should occur on 12/28/2001. The window opens on 12/26/2001 and will close on 12/30/2001. The radius on this is 65Km. Take Care…Don in creepy town
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