Re: How to develop an earthquake forecasting program
Posted by EQF on December 09, 2001 at 23:04:02:

Regarding using names,

I send informal earthquake forecast information to government officials around the world fairly often. And it has been my experience that most are willing to listen to what you have to say as long as they do not feel threatened by the information. I avoid using my own name and only rarely use any other person’s name in both public and private notices in part to keep those government officials happy. If they are interested in my forecasting data then they can check my Web site to see if my data might be legitimate. If they are not then they can ignore them. Then if an earthquake does occur and flattens a city in their country they can always say that they did receive a warning for it. But they had no idea who the person was who sent them the warning and so they decided to ignore it.

"Deniability" factors like that appear to be important to the politics of forecasting earthquakes.