FORECASTING PROGRAM QUESTION FOR DON

You do not need to answer this question if you regard the information as being confidential (or if you have any other reason for not wishing to answer it or do not see the question). The reason that I am interested in this is because I occasionally send information to different governments and disaster mitigation groups regarding progress which is being made in the area of earthquake forecasting. And if you have an answer for this question then the next time that I send any of them that type of information I will probably try to report that it appears that some people believe that they are making progress in the area of Probability Based earthquake forecasting programs.

Is your forecasting program "Probability Based" or "Signal Based?"

In one or more of my Newsgroup notes in the past I believe that I proposed that the most effective global earthquake forecasting type of program would rely on two fundamentally different groups of programs. One group could be described as Probability Based and the other Signal Based. Probability Based programs would rely on information regarding earthquakes, solar and geomagnetic storms, atmospheric storms, Chandler’s Wobble, and sun and moon gravitational pull strengths etc. Signal Based programs would rely on the detection of distinct earthquake precursors such as electromagnetic energy field fluctuations and reports of radon gas emission and unusual animal behavior etc.

My own forecasting program largely involves the evaluation of human earthquake sensitivity types of earthquake warning signals. And so for the most part it would be considered a Signal Based program. It sounds to me like your program would be regarded as what I would describe as a Probability Based one. It is my understanding that there is a group in Russia which is also working on some type of Probability Based program.

These are my own opinions.