Hi All. Since I'm the one who is making most of the quake predictions I though maybe I should put my nickels worth in here.

When all of the criteria for my forecast has been met (time, location, and magnitude) I consider that a good forecast.

When the quake is 41Km to 80Km from the forecasted epicenter I feel that it's a miss, but just barely. I then try to determine why it occurred outside the limits. Anything beyond the 80Km is a miss, but again I try to determine the reason for the miss.

When the quake occurs early or late I also try to determine the reason. For the most part I feel I have an answer for why they might occur early, but have yet to find a logical answer for why they occur late.

The magnitude of the forecasted quake is determined by the past history of quakes within a 20Km radius of the forecasted epicenter. I consider it a good forecast if the quake is within the magnitude forecasted. I consider it a miss if the quake is one whole magnitude higher then what I forecasted.

If there isn't a quake at all then it's a miss. Period. However I do go back and see if I can find something that may have influenced the data in such a way that it gave me a false reading. Most of the time I don't find anything, but the most probable reason is that it isn't ready to break, or I chose the wrong data.

I will admit that I like to be correct, but that isn't the main reason for the forecasts. The data has to be put to the test and where ever possible determine why things occurred the way did, or didn't. With each forecast I make whether it's a hit or a miss I learn a little bit more. I then apply that to the next forecast. If that doesn't improve the accuracy of the forecast then its back to the drawing boards. Take Care…Don in creepy town