With the activity in northern California today, it is once again necessary
to evaluate forecasts from Don and Petra. So here are some of the ones which
matched to some extent events occurring today:

FORECAST 1:
O: 07DEC2001 19:07 35.3N 139.1E Mj=4.6 NIED EASTERN_YAMANASHI_PREF, JAPAN
P: 06-10DEC 65 km 34.7N 138.9E 4.0-5.0 Shimoda-Machi, Japan
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11616.html

FORECAST 2:
O: 07DEC2001 12:45:13 40.4N 124.1W ML=2.0 NCSN S of Rio Dell, CA
O: 07DEC2001 22:37:23 40.7N 123.8W ML=2.4 NCSN S of Willow Creek, CA
P: 06-10DEC 40 km 40.6N 124.3W 2.5-3.5 Fortuna, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11547.html

FORECAST 3:
O: 07DEC2001 19:53:19 39.0N 123.1W ML=1.6 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 15:22:05 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.0 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:29:08 39.0N 123.1W ML=4.1 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:41:56 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.0 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:47:38 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.5 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 13:07:15 39.0N 123.1W ML=1.8 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
P: 10-14DEC 40 km 38.6N 122.3W 2.6-3.6 St. Helena, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11605.html

FORECAST 4:
O: 07DEC2001 21:06:23 34.3N 118.4W ML=1.4 SCSN NNW of Lake View Terrace, CA
P: 06-10DEC 40 km 34.3N 118.4W 2.3-3.3 San Fernando, CA
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11510.html

Comments on the forecasts:

FORECAST 1:

The earthquake occurred 65 km from the forecast epicenter, within
the magnitude and time window forecast. This was a complete success.

Probablity:

During the past year, there have been 6 5-day time windows with the
parameters of the quake Don forecast. In the same time there have been
73 such 5-day windows. The probablity of random success is thus 0.08
or odds for random success of about 1 in 12. An excellent forecast.

FORECAST 2:

The event at Willow Creek occurred at about 40-41 km from the forecast
epicenter, was within the time and magnitude range (I always accept
a magnitude within 0.1 units of the forecast as valid). The forecast
was thus completely successful for this event. The Rio Del event
occurred within 30 km of the epicenter, but was not completely successful
as the Ml 2.0 was lower than the anticipated magnitude range.

Probability:

The probability of random success with this forecast is pretty
high. There have been 22 5-day windows in the past year containing
a successful event. This is a probability of 22/73 = 0.30 or odds
of random success about 1 in 3.

FORECAST 3:

No evaluation can be made of this event at this time on Don's forecast
because the window is still open, however Petra had noted in an
e-mail I received on Dec. 3:

"All day today I've been hearing something akin to ear tones, but they =
like a background sound rather than a foreground sound. Its odd, but it =
seems like something unusual is occurring. I'm positive it is not =
tinitus. Not ringing, but the distinct background sound of tones. It =
may be possible I'm hearing an aseismic slip in progress. These sounds =
I've heard from both ears separately. =20

With the r ear tone I had on Saturday night that was so sharp and so =
short, it may well be the San Andreas is about to take a lurch. Only =
time will tell.

Petra"

Don also confirmed the following message:

"Hi Don,

For your data base. Left ear tone 11/28/01 around 11:10PM, lasted five seconds.

Expect a 4.0 - 4.6 North coast, could be off shore.

Petra"

More on this below at:
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/11677.html

Others have commented on this ear tone, and I leave that for
discussion.

FORECAST 4:

The earthquake was exactly at the epicenter and time expected,
however was smaller than the predicted magnitude. The window
is still open, however, so an additional event may yet occur
here with larger magnitude. Not yet evaluated.