STRONG EARTHQUAKE (MS 6.1) OCCURS IN SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
TRIGGERED BY S-WAVE FROM BANDA SEA QUAKE MB 5.5

SUMMARY

Following the loss of the USGS data to the outside world, a strong
earthquake hit South Island, New Zealand this morning. The earthquake
registered Mb 6.1 and was the largest event within 100 km of the
located epicenter since May 4, 1976 when a Mb 6.7 occurred nearby.
Other shocks of Ms>=6 have occurred within 100 km of this event
as follows:

Mar 8, 1964 Ms 6.4
May 24, 1960 Ms 6.9
This was probably a FFA from the great Chile earthquakes of
May 20-23, 1960, the largest quakes recorded in modern times.
Oct 13, 1947 Ms 6.6
May 8, 1943 Ms 6.4
and
Mar 13, 1943 Ms 6.1

The earthquake was felt throughout southern South Island. Reports
of damage are being collected.

About 16 minutes before the New Zealand earthquake, a Mb 5.5 event
was recorded in the Banda Sea. This earthquake was probably a FFA from
the Honshu earthquake as it lies at 45 degrees from that event in
and area designated by the FFA forecast as a likely region for
triggering:

"43-45 degrees: ...., Ceram"

TRIGGERING BY S-WAVE

The earthquakes in these two area had the following parameters (NEIS):

O: 07DEC2001 19:27:37 44.0S 168.3E Ms=6.1 NEIS SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
and
O: 07DEC2001 19:11:31 5.6S 130.4E MB=5.5 NEIS BANDA SEA.INDONESIA

The time difference between these two events is 16 minutes 6 seconds.
The distance between them is 50 degrees. The Jeffrey-Bullen travel time
tables show that an S-wave moving from the site of the Banda Sea earthquake
to the epicenter of the South Island, New Zealand event would arrive
16 minutes 6 seconds after the Banda earthquake initiated. In other words,
the S-wave arrived at the epicenter of the South Island, New Zealand
earthquake at the exact second the the South Island event began to
rupture. Coincidence? I doubt it very much!! This may be THE classic
example of dynamic triggering from S-waves at a distance that is cited
in future literature once such triggering is accepted as fact.

GLOBAL

A Ml 4.7 earthquake also occurred in Antigua, Caribbean this morning.
This may have been related to the same effects (Olga and Honshu) which
likely triggered the eruption of Kick-'em-Jenny on December 4. A strong
swarm of earthquake has also been occurring in the region north of
Puerto Rico over the past 4 days, since Hurricane Olga reversed course north
of Puerto Rico on the 3rd of December. This activity had been anticipated
in this report as a consequence of the unusual path Olga was taking
through the Atlantic Ocean as stated in the report of November 29:

"Tropical Depression Olga continues to approach the Carribean
from the northeast today. She is currently located north of the
Island of Hispaniola at about 24N 66W. Landfall from the current
direction could reduce normal stress across the Caribbean/No. American
subduction zone sufficiently to generate a sizable earthquake. Even
the strike-slip faults along the northern boundary of Haiti/Puerto
Rico/Dominican Republic are susceptible to seismicity from forces
generated through this rare storm path."

In other global activity, earthquakes of MB>=4 occurred in eastern
Japan (Mj 4.4, 4.6); the eastern Sea of Japan (Mb 4.0); Taiwan (Mb 4.6, 3.9);
the Istmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico (Ml 4.0); Guerrero, Mexico (Mb 4.0,4.1);
Central and northern Puerto Rico (Ml 3.9, 3.9, 4.0); south of Spain (Mb 4.6);
and in the Aegean Sea (Ms 4.5-4.6).

U.S./CANADA

The largest earthquake to be recorded in the U.S./Canada region today was
a light to moderate earthquake (Mw 4.3) in Ukiah region of northern
California. This is the largest earthquake within 30 km of this epicenter
since Jan 11, 2000 and one of only 5 earthquakes in the region which
have had Ml>=4.3. The others occurred on Jan 11, 2000 (Ml 4.6);
Sept. 19, 1992 (Ml 4.9); March 26, 1978 (Ml 4.9) and June 6, 1962 (Mb 5.2).
This earthquake occurred at 71 degrees from the Honshu earthquake and was
probably a FFA as it occurred at a distance and in a region where FFA
was expected after that quake as noted in the FFA forecast:

"71-73 degrees: ... San Francisco, CA area"

The region from Central California into northern California has seen
a substantial increase in seismic activity over the past three days
(since the Honshu earthquake) with additional events of Ml>=2 in the
region today near Eureka (Md 2.4); Tres Pinos (Md 2.7); aftershocks of
the Ukiah earthquake (Md 2.0, 2.5); San Juan Bautista (Md 2.2);
the Geysers(Md 2.2); Napa (Md 2.9); Rio Dell (Ml 2.0) and Lower
Lake CA (Ml 2.7, 2.9).
A light earthquake of Ml 3.4 was also recorded in the Joshua Tree
region of southern California this afternoon. The region of southern
California was also active today with earthquakes of Ml>=2 recorded
near Calexico (Ml 2.1); Obsidian Butte (Ml 2.1, 2.2, 2.1); Baker (Ml 2.0);
Indio (Ml 2.1) and Lake Isabella (Ml 2.4).

No reports have been made of earthquakes of Ml>=3 in the regions
of Alaska or Hawaii today.

The swarm in Yellowstone that began with the Honshu earthquake
has now faded into background, as have the swarms at the other volcanic
centers associated in time with that mainshock. An earthquake of Ml
probably greater than 3 was recorded in western Idaho yesterday.
Otherwise the central mountain region has been relatively quiet
in the past two days. A Ml 2.5 was recorded by PGC in the southern
Vancouver Island region this morning. No other events of Ml>=2
have been listed today in the Pacific northwest or western Canada.

The largest, and only earthquake reported from the eastern U.S.
and Canada today occurred in the Matane, Quebec region with Ml 2.4.

NEW ZEALAND

In addition to the Ms 6.1 in South Island, New Zealand and the moderate
aftershocks (two of Ml>=4), a moderate earthquake also occurred
off Gisborne, North Island with Mb 5.0. A moderate earthquake was
also recorded in the Kermadec Islands region (Mb 4.6).
Unusual earthquakes were also recorded yesterday in the Thallon, Queensland,
Australia area (Ml 2.8) and in the Hawker, SA, Australia region (Ml 3.4).
The later was widely felt and woke a large number of residents of Hawker
where a brand new seismograph which had been installed the day before
recorded the event well.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained at quiet conditions today. There were
no M- or X-class solar flares observed today.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011207events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were currently active in the North Atlantic,
east Pacific or Indian Oceans today.

Tropical Storm Kajiki is currently located near Vietnam. No additional
seismicity is expected to be associated with this storm.

For more details see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

A Satellite View of Kajik can be found at:

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCkajiki339_GML.jpg

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

December 08 is the twenty-fourth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 21 2.5 0.04
Antarctica MB>=4.0 343 2.8 0.02
India MB>=4.0 58 2.5 0.04
Yellowstone MB>=1.0 31 3.3 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 07DEC2001 19:27:37 44.0S 168.3E Ms=6.1 NEIS SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND
O: 7Dec2001 20:58 44.0S 168.5E ML=4.6 IGNS HAAST, SO. ISLAND, N.Z.
O: 7Dec2001 20:53 44.1S 168.6E ML=4.4 IGNS HAAST, SO. ISLAND, N.Z.
O: 7Dec2001 19:27 44.0S 168.5E ML=6.1 IGNS HAAST, SO. ISLAND, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Felt widely in the southern South Island

O: 7Dec2001 17:33 38.7S 177.6E ML=5.0 IGNS SW of Gisborne, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) Likely to have been felt from East Cape to Hawke's Bay

O: 07DEC2001 05:13:42 30.0S 176.8W Ms=4.8 GSSC KERMADEC ISLANDS REGI

O: 06DEC2001 20:10 28.7S 148.8E Ml=2.8 AGSO Thallon QLD, Australia

O: 06DEC2001 20:10 17.3S 138.4E Ml=3.4 AGSO Hawker, SA, Australia
Note (AGSO): This earthquake occurred near Hawker in the Flinders Ranges, about
338 kilometres north of Adelaide. Although only of small magnitude, this
event must have been very close to Hawker where it was widely felt, waking
a large proportion of local residents. The earthquake was well recorded on
Hawker's brand new seismograph station (installed the previous day).
Information supplied by the Sutton Earthquake Centre, PIRSA, South Australia.

ASIA

O: 07DEC2001 22:07 37.2N 140.0E Mj=4.4 NIED MID_FUKUSHIMA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 07DEC2001 19:07 35.3N 139.1E Mj=4.6 NIED EASTERN_YAMANASHI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 07DEC2001 19:11:19 6.2S 131.1E Ms=4.7 GSSC TANIMBAR IS.INDONESIA
O: 07DEC2001 19:11:31 5.6S 130.4E MB=5.5 NEIS BANDA SEA.INDONESIA
Note: This event is probably an FFA from the Honshu Mw 6.5 on Dec. 2
as it lies at 45 degrees from that event.

O: 07DEC2001 10:05:56 2.7S 100.9E Ms=3.5 GSSC SOUTHERN SUMATERA, IN
Note: This event is probably an FFA from the Honshu Mw 6.5 on Dec. 2
as it lies at 45 degrees from that event.

O: 07DEC2001 22:07:42 42.3N 136.4E Ms=4.0 GSSA EASTERN SEA OF JAPAN

O: 07DEC2001 19:11:30 5.7S 131.0E SR=5.8 AEIC1 W TUAL , INDONESIA

O: 07DEC2001 10:05:40 4.5S 101.8E SR=5.1 AEIC1 SW BENGKULU , INDONESIA

O: 07DEC2001 05:17:20 9.2S 119.9E SR=4.8 AEIC1 NW WAINGAPU , INDONESIA

O: 06DEC2001 22:59:40 11.3S 106.9E SR=5.9 AEIC1 S CIAMIS , INDONESIA

O: 06DEC2001 20:38:40 8.7S 116.9E SR=4.9 AEIC1 E SELONG , INDONESIA
O: 06DEC2001 20:26:50 8.2S 116.2E SR=4.9 AEIC1 N MATARAM , INDONESIA

O: 06DEC2001 22:00:50 10.1S 111.5E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S PACITAN , INDONESIA
O: 06DEC2001 20:27:30 11.2S 111.5E SR=5.0 AEIC1 S PACITAN , INDONESIA
O: 06DEC2001 12:59:30 10.6S 111.5E SR=5.8 AEIC1 S PACITAN , INDONESIA

O: 05DEC2001 05:07:00 11.6S 115.1E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S DENPASAR , INDONESIA

O: 07DEC2001 19:59:52 24.0N 121.6E ML=3.9 CWB Hualien, Taiwan
O: 07DEC2001 16:07:40 23.1N 120.8E ML=4.6 CWB Kaohsiung, Taiwan

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 07DEC2001 03:14:16 16.9N 94.5W ML=4.0 SSN ISTMO DE TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO

O: 06DEC2001 23:00:24 18.1N 102.0W ML=4.0 SSN RIO BALSAS INFERIOR, MEXICO
O: 06DEC2001 08:37:07 17.8N 101.6W ML=4.1 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 06DEC2001 22:35:09 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 06DEC2001 18:13:20 10.0N 86.3W MC=4.1 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 07DEC2001 00:35:41 11.0N 87.0W ML=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 07DEC2001 02:20:05 10.9N 86.6W MC=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 07DEC2001 11:19:27 11.9N 87.0W MC=2.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

CARIBBEAN

O: 07DEC2001 12:00:10 17.1N 61.2E MB=4.7 UWI Antigua, West Indies
NOTE (UWI): Preliminary reports indicate that it was felt
at intensity IV on the Modified Mercalli scale in Antigua.
This earthquake is part of the normal tectonic pattern of the northeastern
Caribbean and has absolutely no connection with Kick 'em Jenny.

O: 07DEC2001 14:09:46 18.2N 66.9W ML=2.4 PRSN Central Puerto Rico
O: 06DEC2001 20:59:38 18.1N 65.9W ML=2.5 PRSN Eastern Puerto Rico
O: 06DEC2001 15:19: 8 18.2N 66.9W ML=3.3 PRSN Central Puerto Rico
O: 06DEC2001 12:50:15 18.1N 66.5W ML=2.8 PRSN Southern Puerto Rico
O: 04DEC2001 09:15:48 18.1N 66.9W ML=2.4 PRSN Southern Puerto Rico
O: 03DEC2001 21:06:57 18.1N 66.9W ML=2.6 PRSN Southern Puerto Rico
O: 07DEC2001 00:15:42 19.0N 66.0W ML=2.9 PRSN North of Puerto Rico

O: 06DEC2001 05:59:44 19.2N 68.1W ML=3.7 PRSN Mona Canyon
O: 04DEC2001 23:21: 6 18.5N 68.5W ML=3.9 PRSN Eastern Dominican Rep

O: 05DEC2001 20:44:16 19.4N 65.3W ML=3.9 PRSN North of Puerto Rico
O: 04DEC2001 16:08:37 19.4N 65.5W ML=3.6 PRSN North of Puerto Rico

Note: These events in Puerto Rico represent a substantial increase in
seismicity in the three days following the approach of Hurricane
Olga from the north and the Honshu earthquake. This, plus the Antigua
earthquake and the Kick-'em-Jenny eruption suggest strong regional
triggering was occurring.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 06DEC2001 13:24:22 38.7N 0.5E ML=4.8 STR REGION DES ILES BALEARES

O: 06DEC2001 17:44:58 44.3N 10.7E ML=3.7 STR ITALIE (NORD-OUEST DE FLO

O: 07DEC2001 19:44:49 39.2N 23.8E Mb=4.6 CSEM AEGEAN SEA
O: 07DEC2001 19:44:50 39.1N 23.4E Ms=4.5 GSSC AEGEAN SEA

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 07DEC2001 11:35:44 33.1N 115.7W ML=2.6 SCSN NW of Westmorland, CA
O: 07DEC2001 11:35:14 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.4 SCSN W of Obsidian Butte, CA
O: 8DEC2001 1:15:15 33.2N 115.6W ML=2.1 SCSN NNE of Obsidian Butte, CA

O: 07DEC2001 21:06:23 34.3N 118.4W ML=1.4 SCSN NNW of Lake View Terrace, CA

O: 07DEC2001 17:22:30 33.9N 116.2W ML=2.1 SCSN N of Indio, CA
O: 07DEC2001 20:47:49 34.4N 116.5W ML=3.4 SCSN N of Yucca Valley, CA

O: 07DEC2001 22:11:14 36.8N 121.4W ML=2.7 NCSN W of Tres Pinos, CA

O: 07DEC2001 11:55:27 37.3N 121.6W ML=1.4 NCSN N of Morgan Hill, CA

O: 7DEC2001 4:19:50 38.9N 122.5W ML=2.9 NCSN E of Lower Lake, CA
O: 7DEC2001 4:20:46 38.9N 122.5W ML=2.7 NCSN E of Lower Lake, CA

O: 07DEC2001 19:53:19 39.0N 123.1W ML=1.6 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 15:22:05 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.0 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:29:08 39.0N 123.1W ML=4.1 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:41:56 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.0 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 14:47:38 39.0N 123.1W ML=2.5 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA
O: 07DEC2001 13:07:15 39.0N 123.1W ML=1.8 NCSN SSE of Ukiah, CA

O: 07DEC2001 12:45:13 40.4N 124.1W ML=2.0 NCSN S of Rio Dell, CA

O: 07DEC2001 22:37:23 40.7N 123.8W ML=2.4 NCSN S of Willow Creek, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 7DEC2001 6:03:41 48.8N 122.1W ML=1.1 PNSN E of Deming, WA

O: 7DEC2001 2:24:41 47.7N 121.9W ML=1.3 PNSN E of Duvall, WA

O: 07DEC2001 07:26:31 49.8N 127.2W ML=2.5 PGC W Gold R. BC

O: 07DEC2001 02:11:08 51.9N 118.9W ML=0.6 PGC NNW Revelstoke BC

O: 06DEC2001 3:20:83 47.5N 116.0W ML>3.1 PNSN WESTERN IDAHO

O: 06DEC2001 8:20:31 47.6N 120.2W ML=0.8 PNSN WASHINGTON

O: 06DEC2001 23:24: 8 46.9N 122.4W ML>2.4 PNSN WASHINGTON

O: 07DEC2001 14:29:59 42.3N 122.1W ML>3.0 PNSN KLAMATH FALLS, ORE

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 02DEC2001 20:20:09 46.7N 112.4W ML=1.8 MBMG 15 km N of Elliston, MT

O: 03DEC2001 10:14:52 47.3N 113.0W ML=1.0 MBMG 35 km NE of Seeley Lake, MT
O: 04DEC2001 01:36:49 47.7N 113.8W ML=1.4 MBMG 20 km S of Seeley Lake, MT

O: 05DEC2001 02:57:28 45.7N 112.0W ML=1.0 MBMG 20 km S of Whitehall, MT
O: 06DEC2001 05:17:25 45.8N 112.2W ML=1.0 MBMG near Pipestone Hot Springs, MT

O: 06DEC2001 03:21:22 47.4N 115.9W ML=2.1 MBMG near Wallace, ID

O: 06DEC2001 04:07:09 46.0N 111.1W ML=1.1 MBMG near Maudlow, MT
O: 06DEC2001 09:10:00 45.6N 111.0W ML=1.4 MBMG near Bozeman, MT
O: 06DEC2001 09:16:51 45.6N 111.0W ML=2.4 MBMG near Bozeman, MT

O: 06DEC2001 20:09:53 44.7N 112.4W ML=1.1 MBMG 15 km NE of Lima, MT

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 07DEC2001 02:25:53 49.1N 67.5W MN=2.4 GSC 30 km N from Matane, Que.