Hey Don,
I was wondering why you were waiting to post that prediction (Don
often passes his forecasts by me a little before posting them for
any thoughts I might have) for Yountville. Seemed to me like you were
shaving it a bit thin. So you posted it at 13:47 PST (21:47 UT) today.
It's a good thing too, because NCSN is now listing the following
earthquake this afternoon:

O: 03DEC2001 23:05:33 38.3N 122.4W MD=2.8 NCSN 5 km SW of Napa, CA

Source:
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/quake.geo.berkeley.edu/name=quake

That less than 15 km from your predicted epicenter and less than
an hour and a half after you posted the forecast - can't shave it much
closer than that. Those fine frog hairs of yours must be a'tingling.

Don's forecast had been:

P: 05-09DEC 40 km 38.4N 122.4W ML 2.5-3.5 Yountville, California

The forecast is within 15 km of this afternoon's earthquake and the
magnitude of this event falls in the middle of the given magnitude range.
The event occurs two days early from the stated expected window, however.
So, Don are you still expecting another in the time window?

Probability:

NEIS lists 6 days on which events of Ml 2.5-3.5 have occurred in the
past two years (Since Dec. 2, 1999) within 40 km of the predicted
epicenter. For a 5-day window, the probability of a "successful"
forecast is 6/122 = 0.05 or odds of about 1 in 20 for success. For
a 7-day forecast window (which would include today's event, these
odds are about 1 in 17 for a successful forecast. Beat the odds
again Don, congrats, and next time try to give a bit more warning!!

Don's Original Forecast had read (Post #11511 above Dec 3, 2001)

Yountville, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on December 03, 2001 at 13:47:32:

Magnitude: 2.5-3.5Ml
From: 12/05/2001 - To: 12/09/2001
Location: Yountville, California
Lat: 38.4N - Long: 122.4W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Looks like it\222s going to be a long day.

Looking for 2.5 to 3.5 at 38.4N/122.4W. This is about 5 Km west of Yountville,
California. Should occur on 12/07/2001. The window will open on 12/05/2001
and will close on 12/09/2001. The radius on this is 40Km.
Take Care...Don in creepy town

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