Hi Michael. Regarding that suggestion,

The first forecast which I circulated for a destructive earthquake was on December 30, 1994. There may be a record of it somewhere in the files at the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado. I do not know how long they maintain those types of records. A few weeks later an earthquake in Kobe, Japan reportedly claimed more than 5000 lives. Having circulated quite a few forecasts since then I believe that I can say the following as an expert on this subject matter:

If you wish to circulate earthquake forecasts you presently have two, and only two options:

1. You can post forecasts to public locations for research purposes and perhaps to a limited extent to warn people about an approaching earthquake.

2. It is my personal opinion that our governments are the organizations which are responsible for protecting people from approaching earthquakes. And if you wish to interact effectively with government personnel then you cannot circulate your forecasts in public. Instead you have to contact those people by private e-mail, FAX, or by telephone as I myself do.

If you try to do both of those things then the following sequence of events will likely take place. I myself have not had this happen. But I believe that I have seen it happen to a number of other people.

1. People who are upset about some forecast you made will call both government officials and news service personnel to try to learn if the earthquake you have predicted is actually going to occur.

2. News service personnel will then begin calling government officials to find out if it is going to occur.

3. The government officials will very likely have no idea if one is going to occur. They will get quite upset about all of the commotion. And the next time you try to contact them to warn them that an earthquake could be on the way they will refuse to talk with you.

Unfortunately, those appear to be the only two options available at this time. And so you have to choose one or the other. As much as I would like to post forecasts to public locations I feel that it is even more important to be able to talk with government officials etc. without having them get upset. And so in part for that reason I do not post forecasts to public locations. If there were some formal research group with which people could work in generating forecasts then things might be different. But at the moment, most forecasters seem to be on their own. And you have to make those types of decisions regarding the most productive directions in which to move.

These are my own opinions.