Locations of possible FFA from the Mb 6.5 on Honshu, Japan this morning
Posted by Lowell on December 02, 2001 at 10:01:43:

It appears that someone has been using a bit of ESP out there - Don?
After your forecast for Honshu and the notices regarding the special
on Japanese TV, a strong earthquake occurred in northern Honshu, Japan this
morning. This earthquake initially registering Mb 6.5 was at 120 km depth,
and so probably will not cause much damage on the surface.

For a brief new report see:

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20011202_869.html

This earthquake occurs in the period of expected strong global seismicity
from the geomagnetic storms of 24 and 26 November.
The quake also occurred at 37 degrees from the CMT epicenter of the
Kunlun Mts. great quake of Nov. 14 and may be a FFA from that earthquake.

"The FFA forecast from that event had stated:
The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

...Off East Coast of Honshu, or Southern Kuriles"

It may also be of some interest that this earthquake occurred at the
edge of the s-wave shadow zone (106-107 degrees distant) from the strong
Ms 6.4 earthquake in Chiapas, Mexico on Nov. 28 and is at the same distance
from the current location of TD Olga off the northern coast of Cuba today.

Far-Field Aftershocks?

No regular far-field forecast will be produced for this earthquake, however
a listing of locations at appropriate distance is provided here where
FFA are most likely to occur. The event is too small to produce strong
triggering at distance, however, so magnitudes should increase only up
to 0.5 units above previous estimates in the following areas:

0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- Up to 5 degrees west of the mainshock
epicenter, Japan, Kuril Islands - some prior activity in these areas
suggested the possibility of a strong up-coming event. Especially
a swarm at 39N 143E on 24 November and earthquakes in the Kurils
this morning. Regional triggering of strong earthquakes in Japan
is quite common.
9-10 degrees: Kyushu, No. Kuril Islands
17-19 degrees: Ryukyu Islands, Kamchatka
34-36 degrees: Mindanao, Fox Islands, Qinghai aftershocks
43-45 degrees: Myanmar, Nepal/No. India, Halmahera, Celebes, So. Alaska
(Seward/Anchorage), New Britain, Ceram
59-61 degrees: So. of Sumatera/Java, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan
Finland, Svalbard, Vancouver Island, British Colombia, Hawaii,
region around North geomagnetic pole, No. Vanuatu Islands
71-73 degrees: Gulf of Aden, Eastern Turkey, Samoa, Fiji Islands,
San Francisco, CA area, No. of Iceland
103-107 degrees***: Chiapas, Mexico, Guatemala, Cuba, Swan fracture zone,
No. Atlantic Ridge, Canary Islands, Lake Victoria, Balleny Islands
142-146 degrees: So. Peru (14-19S)
176-180 degrees: Aseismic area at 39S 38W.


Follow Ups:
     ● Tropical Storm Olga - chris in suburbia  15:15:19 - 12/2/2001  (11471)  (0)
     ● Location of Mainshock - Lowell  10:04:21 - 12/2/2001  (11460)  (1)
        ● Re: FFA Map - Canie  10:36:31 - 12/2/2001  (11461)  (1)
           ● Re: FFA Map - Lowell  10:41:47 - 12/2/2001  (11462)  (1)
              ● Re: FFA Map - Roger Hunter  16:46:07 - 12/2/2001  (11474)  (1)
                 ● For Roger / Map 411?- Re: FFA Map - 2cents  17:10:15 - 12/2/2001  (11476)  (1)
                    ● Re: For Roger / Map 411?- Re: FFA Map - Roger Hunter  18:25:08 - 12/2/2001  (11480)  (0)