The earthquake in the Dixie Valley (Ml 3.2) area which was belatedly listed
today but happened early on Nov. 30 brought to mind Don's prediction for
an event in Bridgeport, California for the 27 Nov to 01 Dec. REN is
reporting the following event that occurred yesterday morning:

1: 30NOV2001 06:38:15 39.4N 118.0W ML=3.2 NCSN S of Dixie Valley, NV

Two other events also occurred in the area on the 29-30 of November:

2: 29NOV2001 19:43:30 38.5N 118.4W Ml=2.0 NCSN ESE of Hawthorne, NV
3: 30NOV2001 08:40:04 38.7N 119.6W ML=1.8 NCSN ENE of Markleeville, CA

Source:
http://www.scecdc.scec.org/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

Don's Bridgeport forecast had been for:

P: 27NOV-01DEC 40 km 38.2N 119.3W ML 2.8-4.1 Bridgeport, California

None of these events occurred within the stated 40 km radius, however
event 3 is 55 km from the predicted epicenter and event 2 is 80 km away.
The Dixie Valley quake however is 160 km away. Except for the distance
the Dixie Valley quake does match the magnitude and time windows stated
in Don's forecast. The other two events (2 and 3) are too low in magnitude
but within the time window. Not a really good match on any of these.
It is interesting, however to see what the probabilities of a match
with and event between 38.2 and 39.4 and 119.5W and 118W with M>=3
would be for a 5-day time window. In other words, how often does
and event in this magnitude range occur in the general region including
Don's forecast and the Dixie Valley earthquake. Fourteen 5-day periods
have seen earthquakes of Ml>=3 in this region in the past 3 years - since
November 21, 1998. In the same period, there have been 219 5-day periods
for a probability of random success in a 5-day period of 0.06 or odds
of random success of about 1 in 16 during a 5-day period. For a 3-day
period (as was the case here), the odds of success are 1 in 26.
Certainly beat the odds for calling a light regional quake in this
area, but the distance factor needs improvement.

Don's forecast had been (Post #11322, Nov. 27,2001):

Bridgeport, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 27, 2001 at 14:59:50:

Magnitude: 2.8-4.1Ml
From: 11/27/2001UTC - To: 12/01/2001UTC
Location: Bridgeport, California
Lat: 38.2N - Long: 119.3W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. Looking for a 2.8 to 4.1Ml quake at 38.2N/119.3W. This is about
8Km SW of Bridgeport, California. Should occur on 11/29/2001. The window
opens on 11/27/2001 and will close on 12/01/2001. The radius on this is
40Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town