Don's Santa Barbara forecast and last night's event
Posted by Lowell on November 29, 2001 at 09:53:46:

Better late than never, Don.
SCSN is reporting the following earthquake that occurred last night:

O: 28NOV2001 22:03:31 34.3N 119.7W MC=2.0 SCSN SSE of downtown Santa Barbara

Source:
http://www.scecdc.scec.org/scecusers/.plan

Earlier in November Don had forecast an earthquake for Santa Barbara:

Original (Post #10962, Nov 14):
P: 21-25NOV 40 km 34.3N 119.7W ML=2.3-3.5 Santa Barbara, California
Revised (Post #11053, Nov 12):
P: 22-26NOV 40 km 34.4N 119.7W ML=2.3-3.5 Santa Barbara, California

While two days late and slightly smaller than the minimum expected
magnitude, the nearly exact epicentral agreement beween this forecast
and this earthquake should be noted carefully. It appears from Don's
note that the date on this event was somewhat uncertain.

Probability:

In the past year (Nov 16, 2000 - Nov 16, 2001) there have been 46
7-day periods of which 6 have contained a "successful" Santa Barbara
earthquake (i.e. within 40 km of 34.3N 119.7W, Ml 2-3.5). Don's
probability of success, then, had he extended his time period through
Nov. 28 and his magnitude range to 2.0 would have been 6/46 = 0.13
or odds for success of about 1 in 8.

The odds for success of a forecast in which the epicenter and forecast
location differ by less than 10 km (as is the case here), however are
much smaller. There has been only two such events of Ml>=2 in the past
two years (on May 29, 2001, Ml 2.1) and on Dec. 12, 1999 (Ml 2.3). The
odds of getting the event within 8 days, of Ml>=2 and within 10 km
is about 1 in 52.

Don's Revised Forecast read (#11053, Nov. 16, 2001)
(The original forecast was #10962, Nov 14, 2001)

Santa Barbara, California Earthquake Revised
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 16, 2001 at 20:12:15:

Magnitude: 2.3-3.5Ml
From: 11/22/2001PST - To: 11/26/2001PST
Location: Santa Barbara, California
Lat: 34.4N - Long: 119.7W - Range:

Hi All. The Santa Barbara quake doesn't want to stay put. This forecast
supersedes the forecast of 11/14/2001.

2.3 to 3.5 at 34.4N/119.7W. This is about 2 Km south of Santa Barbara,
California. Should occur on 11/24/2001. The window will open on 11/22/2001
and will close on 11/26/2001. The radius on this is 40Km. I sure hope it stays
put.
Take Care...Don in creepy town



Follow Ups:
     ● Did Santa Barbara quake occur? - chris in suburbia  12:16:49 - 11/29/2001  (11400)  (1)
        ● Re: Did Santa Barbara quake occur? - Lowell  13:48:24 - 11/29/2001  (11404)  (0)