With the re-awakening of California seismicity today, it seemed
appropriate to check up on how forecasts to this board area faring.

Here on some updates on recent forecasts for California from Don in Hollister.

Weaverville area/Willow Creek Northern California:

Three earthquakes occurred today in this area.

O: 27NOV2001 17:15:24 40.7N 123.9W ML=2.6 NCSN SSE of Blue Lake, CA
O: 28NOV2001 04:05:45 40.8N 123.4W ML=2.8 NCSN SE of Willow Creek, CA
O: 28NOV2001 05:19:16 40.8N 123.3W ML=2.4 NCSN ESE of Willow Creek, CA

Don had forecast the area would be active with the following (#11138 Nov 19)

P: 20-24NOV 40 km 40.5N 123.6W ML 2.4-3.6 Dinsmore, CA

While these three events fall within the 40 km radius and the magnitude
window, they are 3-4 days late in time. The first in this minor swarm, however
near Hayfork on Nov. 24 (Ml 2.3 and 2.4) and were completely described
by Don's forecast.

Petrolia area:

NCSN reported the following earthquake today:

O: 28NOV2001 04:27:51 40.3N 124.3W ML=2.5 NCSN ENE of Petrolia, CA

Don had two possible events in the region forecast (#11047 and 11081):

P: 23-27NOV 40 km 40.2N 124.2W Ml 2.8-4.0 Petrolia, CA
P: 21-25NOV 40 km 40.3N 124.3W Ml 2.5-3.5 Petrolia, CA

Both forecasts are very near the determined epicenter, the second
at the exact determined epicenter within calculation error. The first
forecast, however, is slightly earlier (by about 2 hours out of the
time window) and slightly out of the forecast magnitude range. The
second forecast is correct in both location (exact) and magnitude
range, but 3 days early in time.

Malibu area, CA:

SCSN is reporting the following events today:

O: 28NOV2001 08:51:32 34.2N 118.7W ML=2.1 SCSN SW of Simi Valley, CA
O: 28NOV2001 06:08:33 34.2N 118.7W ML=1.5 SCSN NE of Simi Valley, CA
O: 28NOV2001 08:51:08 34.2N 118.7W ML=2.1 SCSN NNE of Simi Valley, CA

Don had posted the following forecast on Nov. 19 (#11110):

P: 25-29NOV 40 km 34.0N 119.0W Ml 2.5-3.5 Malibu, CA

The forecast is correct in time window and within the 40 km distance
range (about 35 km from the epicenter). However, the two Ml 2.1
events did not reach the expected Ml 2.5-3.5 magnitude range. This forecast
is still in effect.