Posted by Lowell on November 28, 2001 at 19:33:15:
Hey Don, Good call on the Marathias, Greece earthquake NOA is locating the following earthquake: O: 28NOV2001 03:20:38 38.4N 21.8E ML=3.2 NOA GREECE Source: http://www.gein.noa.gr/services/monthly-list.html You had forecast on November 22, 2001 (Post #11209): P: 24-28NOV 65 km of 38.4N 22.0E MD=2.9-4.1 Marathias, Greece This forecast matches the event in all regards, being within the stated time, distance (about 25 km away) and magnitude limits. Probability: Unfortunately, the probability of the forecast event occurring by random chance in your 5-day window was pretty high. Since November 20, 2000 there have been 73 5-day windows, 26 of which have contained at least one "successful" event within 65 km of your stated epicenter. This is a probability of 0.35 for random success or odds of success of about 1 in 3. You might get rich, but it won't happen quickly with odds like that. Don's Forecast had read:
Marathias, Greece Earthquake Forecast Posted by Don In Hollister on November 22, 2001 at 10:53:21: Magnitude: 2.9-41Md From: 11/24/2001UTC - To: 11/28/2001UTC Location: Marathias, Greece Lat: 38.4N - Long: 22.0E - Range: 65Km Hi All. Kind of looks like I'm going to stay dry this time around. Looking for a 2.9 to 4.1 quake at 38.4N/22.0E. This is about 2 Km NW of Marathias, Greece. Should occur on 11/26/2001. The window will open on 11/24/2001 and will close on 11/28/2001. The radius on this will be 65Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town
|