Evaluation of Don's Marathias, Greece forecast
Posted by Lowell on November 28, 2001 at 19:33:15:

Hey Don,
Good call on the Marathias, Greece earthquake

NOA is locating the following earthquake:

O: 28NOV2001 03:20:38 38.4N 21.8E ML=3.2 NOA GREECE

Source:
http://www.gein.noa.gr/services/monthly-list.html

You had forecast on November 22, 2001 (Post #11209):

P: 24-28NOV 65 km of 38.4N 22.0E MD=2.9-4.1 Marathias, Greece

This forecast matches the event in all regards, being within
the stated time, distance (about 25 km away) and magnitude limits.

Probability:

Unfortunately, the probability of the forecast event occurring
by random chance in your 5-day window was pretty high. Since
November 20, 2000 there have been 73 5-day windows, 26 of which
have contained at least one "successful" event within 65 km of your
stated epicenter. This is a probability of 0.35 for random success
or odds of success of about 1 in 3. You might get rich, but it
won't happen quickly with odds like that.


Don's Forecast had read:

Marathias, Greece Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 22, 2001 at 10:53:21:

Magnitude: 2.9-41Md
From: 11/24/2001UTC - To: 11/28/2001UTC
Location: Marathias, Greece
Lat: 38.4N - Long: 22.0E - Range: 65Km

Hi All. Kind of looks like I'm going to stay dry this time around.

Looking for a 2.9 to 4.1 quake at 38.4N/22.0E. This is about 2 Km NW of
Marathias, Greece. Should occur on 11/26/2001.
The window will open on 11/24/2001 and will close on 11/28/2001. The radius
on this will be 65Km. Take Care...Don in creepy town