Earthquake Summary for November 27, 2001

Earthquake Summary for November 27, 2001

Posted by Lowell on November 27, 2001 at 15:29:33:

MODERATELY STRONG EARTHQUAKES HIT NEPAL (MB 5.7, 5.9) AND KERMADECS (MB 5.7)

SUMMARY

NEPAL

Two moderately strong earthquakes occurred last night in the
region of Nepal north of India in the Himalaya Mountains. The
area was subject to both FFA triggering from the great Kunlun
mountains earthquake about 9-10 degrees to the northeast of
today's events, and from the severe geomagnetic storm of Nov. 24
which commenced while this area was nearly exactly sub-solar (11:47 a.m.
Solar time). The following parameters are given for these events
by the Asian Seismic Centre (ASC) at:
http://asc-india.org/recent.htm
and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) at:
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/seismo/dynamic/current-month.htm

O: 27NOV2001 08:53:56 29.8N 81.8E Mb=5.7 ASC 9.4 kms W of Unapani, Nepal
O: 27NOV2001 07:31:54 29.8N 81.8E Mb=5.9 ASC 9.4 kms W of Unapani, Nepal
O: 27NOV2001 13:01:51 29.5N 82.0E ML=5.4 IMD Nepal (Indian Standard Time)
O: 27NOV2001 07:31:52 29.5N 81.6E MB=5.4 NEIS NEPAL

Strong events from the geomagnetic storm of 24 November were
expected at this time in the Himalaya region as stated in the daily
report of November 24, 2001:

" A severe (Kp>=9) geomagnetic storm arrived this morning at
about 05:45 UT. This was a suden commencement storm and severely
degraded to readability of most of the on-line seismograms.
Areas which are sub-solar include regions within 20 degrees longitude
of 90E; anti-solar areas are within 20 degrees longitude of
90W, however the strength of the storm suggests that 30-35 degrees
should be taken about the anti- and sub-solar longitudes to be
included in the seismic watch.
The seismic watch will include regions between 125W and 55W and
between 125E and 55E and will extend for the next 5 days. The
largest events are most likely to occur 4-6 days following the
storm, i.e. on November 30 to December 2, 2001 and are most likely
to occur in one of these longitude bands and/or at high latitudes.
These areas include (sub-solar) the aftershock zone of the
Qinghai, China earthquake and the Pakistan/Afghanistan event today;
Sumatera; NORTHERN INDIA AND MOST OF THE HIMALAYAS" [Emphasis added]

These events also occurred in an area where FFA from the Kunlun
Mts. earthquake was expected and at a distance were FFA triggering
is often observed (9-10 degrees)

"0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- ...some possibility in So. Tibet/Nepal"

and

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

No. India/Bangladesh area"

KERMADEC ISLANDS EARTHQUAKES:

Two earthquakes in the Mb 5.5 range also occurred overnight in the
region south of the Kermadec Islands. GSC and NEIS give the following parameters
for these events:

These earthquakes are part of a continuing series of regional events
throughout the Kermadec Islands, including three over the weekend reported
on in yesterdays report. They occurred at the S-wave shadow zone boundary
where strong FFA triggering from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake was expected
(107 degrees distant). A Ml 6.4 occurred northeast of these events
on Nov. 22, 2001.

"103-107 degrees***: ... Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

GLOBAL

Another unusual earthquakes occurred in the Mona Passage between
the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Given a Mb 4.7-5.7 this is
a significant regional earthquake. The last event of Mb>=5.5 in the
region occurred in 1991. The other event of Mb>=5 occurred in
Southern Peru (Mb 5.2), north of the aftershock zone of the great
earthquake of June. Events of ML>=4 were also recorded in
the Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (Mb 4.8). This and several events
north of this epicenter yesterday are occurring east of the location
where Hurricane Olga is stalled in the mid-North Atlantic ocean
and may be related to that storm in some way.
Also occurring since the last report were earthquakes in Northern
(Mb 4.7), Central (Mb 4.5) and Southern Chile (Mb 4.1). Two unusual
earthquakes occurred in areas where FFA from the Kunlun Mts were
expected to occur - in the Lake Tanganyika area of southern Africa
(Mb 4.4) - this occurred at 72 degrees from the Kunlun event; the
second was a Ml 4.8 west of the Galapagos Islands at 99W at a distance
of 142 degrees from Kunlun. Both of these areas also lie within
the seismic watch zones from the recent X1.1 flare and geomagnetic
storm. Four days after geomagnetic storms, areas such as these which are
highly volcanic often show activity.

U.S./CANADA

The U.S./Canada region was again relatively quiet today. Only two
earthquakes of Ml>=2 were located in the California region in the
past 24 hours - in the Geysers (M2.1) region and in Newport Beach CA (Ml 2.0).
No events of M>=3 were located today in regions of Alaska or
Hawaii.
No events of Ml>=2 were listed in other areas of the U.S. today
either.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS did not report any earthquakes today. NEIS did report a Mb 5.7
earthquake in the Kermadec Islands (see summary above.) The on-line
seismogram showed a number of moderate events in the region today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field was at extremely quiet conditions today. SEC
expects this to change tomorrow due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole
and perhaps a CME from the X1.1 flare on 25 November. No X- or M- class
solar flares were observed or recorded today.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011127events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

Hurricane Olga continued to move in a tight circle in the Central
Atlantic about 2000 km east of Georgia at this time
and is expected to remain near those coordinates for the next
three days at least. Olga has sustained winds to 85 mph and gusts to
110 mph at thist time. Some seismic activity on the northern Mid-Atlantic
Ridge, such as yesterday's Mb 4.8 and 5.0 may occur if Olga remains
in this area for an extended period.
For tracking information see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/tracking/at200117.html

Tropical Cyclone (TC) 05s developed today over the Cocos Islands
south of Sumatera. It is currently tracking to the west at about 7
knots and is expected to move southwest over the next several days.
No seismic centers are located in the project path of this cyclone.
For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 28 is the fourteenth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Solomon Islands MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.04
Spain MB>=4.0 38 2.7 0.02

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Rocky Mountains MB>=4.0 -54 -2.1 0.05
China MB>=4.0 -18 -2.1 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTING

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 27NOV2001 00:53:56 33.0S 178.7W MB=5.7 NEIS SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
O: 27Nov2001 00:53:54 32.9S 178.4E MS=5.4 GSR SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
O: 27NOV2001 02:26:56 32.7S 178.0E Ms=5.0 GSSC SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISL
Note: These events occurred at the S-wave shadow zone boundary where
strong FFA triggering from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake was expected
(107 degrees distant). A Ml 6.4 occurred northeast of these events
on Nov. 22, 2001.

103-107 degrees***: ... Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

ASIA

O: 27Nov2001 08:53:56 29.8N 81.8E MB=5.4 GSR NEPAL
O: 27Nov2001 07:31:54 29.9N 81.8E MB=5.4 GSR NEPAL
O: 27NOV2001 08:53:56 29.8N 81.8E Mb=5.7 ASC 9.4 kms W of Unapani, Nepal
O: 27NOV2001 07:31:54 29.8N 81.8E Mb=5.9 ASC 9.4 kms W of Unapani, Nepal
O: 27NOV2001 07:31:52 29.5N 81.6E MB=5.4 NEIS NEPAL
O: 27NOV2001 17:56:57 29.8N 81.8E Ms=4.1 GSSC NEPAL
Note: Strong events from the geomagnetic storm of 24 November were
expected at this time in the Himalaya region as stated in the daily
report of November 24, 2001:

Note: These events also occurred in an area where FFA from the Kunlun
Mts. earthquake was expected and at a distance were FFA triggering
is often observed (9-10 degrees)

"0-5 degrees: Regional triggering- ...some possibility in So. Tibet/Nepal"

and

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

No. India/Bangladesh area"

O: 24NOV2001 07:10 36.7N 130.1E Mj=3.7 NIED SEA_OF_JAPAN, JAPAN

O: 24NOV2001 06:01 35.9N 140.2E Mj=3.8 NIED SOUTHERN_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 22NOV2001 08:15 36.7N 141.3E Mj=4.0 NIED E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 21NOV2001 20:24 41.7N 144.3E Mj=4.9 NIED SE_OFF_TOKACHI, JAPAN

O: 21NOV2001 10:25 42.0N 142.5E Mj=5.0 NIED S_OFF_URAKAWA, JAPAN

O: 21NOV2001 08:31 38.1N 142.3E Mj=4.0 NIED E_OFF_MIYAGI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 20NOV2001 19:13 42.6N 144.8E Mj=3.6 NIED OFF_NEMURO_PENINSULA, JAPAN

O: 20NOV2001 17:27 33.2N 131.8E Mj=3.9 NIED SOUTHERN_OITA_PREF, JAPAN

O: 26nov2001 20:08:03 36.7N 071.1E Mb=4.4 ASC WNW of Tirgaran, Afghanistan

O: 25NOV2001 10:37:50 9.9S 114.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S NEGARA, INDONESIA
O: 25NOV2001 09:50:20 9.8S 113.9E SR=5.2 AEIC1 SW NEGARA, INDONESIA

O: 25NOV2001 09:26:20 8.3S 115.9E SR=4.8 AEIC1 NE AMLAPURA, INDONESIA
O: 24NOV2001 23:28:00 8.6S 115.9E SR=5.1 AEIC1 W MATARAM, INDONESIA

O: 26NOV2001 12:10:15 39.6N 142.9E MB=5.0 NEIS NEAR E COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 26NOV2001 12:19:19 39.4N 143.4E MB=4.3 NEIS OFF E COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
O: 26NOV2001 13:22:07 39.5N 143.1E MB=4.5 NEIS OFF E COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

O: 26NOV2001 20:33:32 4.1N 126.4E MB=4.7 NEIS TALAUD ISLANDS, INDONESIA

O: 26NOV2001 18:56:23 28.8N 139.3E MB=4.3 NEIS BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 26Nov2001 23:46:42 31.0S 71.3W MB=4.5 NEIS NEAR COAST OF CEN CHILE

O: 27NOV2001 10:00:51 39.7S 72.8W ML=4.1 DGF NE of VALDIVIA, CHILE

O: 27NOV2001 13:41:31 26.9S 70.9W MB=4.7 NEIS NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
O: 27NOV2001 13:41:32 27.2S 71.1W ML=4.8 DGF W of CALDERA, CHILE

O: 27NOV2001 13:39:04 12.9N 88.6W MC=3.4 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 27NOV2001 08:19:56 12.8N 87.3W MC=3.5 CASC NICARAGUA, C.A.
F: 30NOV2001 #99-19g 12.9N 88.0W 3.5-4.5 BAAAA El Salvador

O: 26NOV2001 13:07:05 17.0N 94.4W ML=4.0 SSN ISTMO DE TEHUANTEPEC, MEXICO

O: 27NOV2001 01:32:17 15.8S 73.9W MB=5.2 NEIS SOUTHERN PERU

CARIBBEAN

O: 27NOV2001 04:14:07 17.8N 67.8W MB=4.7 NEIS MONA PASSAGE
O: 27NOV2001 04:14:07 18.3N 68.8W Mb=5.7 ULA Rep. Dominicana, Caribbean Sea
O: 27NOV2001 04:14:06 17.9N 68.0W ML=4.6 PRSN Mona Passage
Source:
http://celeste.ciens.ula.ve/BOLETIN/prelim01.htm
Note: This event falls in the seismic watch region from the severe geomagnetic
storm of Nov. 24. That storm was expected to produce strong seismicity
within 35 degrees longitude of 90W at this time (See summary above).
At MB 5.7 (subject to change) it is the largest earthquake in the
Dominican Republic since Oct 11, 1990 when a Mb 5.8 occurred.
This is the first felt (IV) earthquake in the Puerto Rico
region since October 22, 2001 when a Ml 4.8 occurred with MMI IV.

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 27NOV2001 00:20:29 5.5S 29.0E MB=4.4 NEIS LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION
Note: This is probably an FFA from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake as it
Note: This is probably an FFA from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake as it
occurred at 72 degrees from that event in a region where FFA were
forecast to occur as noted in the FFA forecast.:

"71-73 degrees: ....Tanzania, Malawi"

O: 25NOV2001 00:11 36.7N 9.7W Mb=3.3 IGN SE of CABO DE SAN VICENTEE SP

O: 27NOV2001 04:05:47 51.0N 15.6E ML=2.6 BGR POLAND

O: 27NOV2001 8:53:30 37.8N 39.3E ML=4.1 KAN SYVEREK,TURKEY
Not Forecast
Note: This event occurred at 44 degrees from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake
at a distance and region where FFA were expected in the forecast:

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

Westernmost and easternmost Turkey"

O: 26NOV2001 15:13: 4 35.9N 29.9E ML=4.0 NOA Eastern Turkey

O: 26NOV2001 22:33:21 39.6N 20.8E ML=3.0 NOA GREECE

O: 26NOV2001 20:43:50 35.5N 25.9E ML=3.9 NOA CRETE
O: 27NOV2001 03:56:51 35.1N 26.8E ML=3.9 NOA CRETE

OCEANIA

O: 25NOV2001 04:49 28.9N 15.9W MB=2.9 IGN Canary Islands

O: 26NOV2001 13:07:11 2.1N 99.9W MB=4.8 NEIS WEST OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
Note: This is probably an FFA from the Kunlun Mts. earthquake as it
occurred at 142 degrees from that event in a region where FFA were
forecast to occur as noted in the FFA forecast.:

"142-146 degrees: ... Galapagos"

"71-73 degrees: .... Tanzania, Malawi,"

O: 27NOV2001 04:23:37 44.4N 28.0W MB=4.8 NEIS NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 27NOV2001 20:32:06 33.4N 117.9W ML=2.0 SCSN S of Newport Beach, CA

O: 27NOV2001 11:27:20 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA

O: 27NOV2001 8:29:58 39.2N 117.8W ML=2.4 NCSN N of Gabbs, NV

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 24NOV2001 12:38:26 37.8N 113.1W ML=1.8 UUSN WNW of Summit, UT

O: 22NOV2001 21:53:07 40.6N 111.6W ML=1.7 UUSN W of Park City, UT
O: 21NOV2001 13:47:40 41.3N 111.7W ML=1.9 UUSN NE of Huntsville, UT

O: 23NOV2001 10:50:40 41.5N 113.0W ML=1.6 UUSN NNW of Lakeside, UT
O: 22NOV2001 1:51:41 41.7N 112.8W ML=1.9 UUSN W of Tremonton, UT

O: 23NOV2001 7:53:22 41.8N 111.6W ML=1.2 UUSN ENE of Providence, UT

O: 27NOV2001 19:19:20 44.8N 111.0W MD=0.6 MBMG Yellowstone N.P. WY
O: 27NOV2001 02:04:50 44.8N 111.0W MD=0.7 MBMG Yellowstone N.P. WY
O: 27NOV2001 00:53:46 45.0N 110.9W MD=0.0 MBMG Yellowstone N.P. WY
O: 24NOV2001 5:52:27 44.6N 110.4W ML=1.8 UUSN N of Fishing Bridge, WY
O: 26NOV2001 0:48:24 44.8N 111.0W ML=1.8 UUSN NNE of W. Yellowstone, MT
O: 27NOV2001 02:04:55 45.1N 111.3W MD=2.0 MBMG Yellowstone N.P. WY

ALASKA

O: 26NOV2001 19:23:10 53.5N 170.3E MB=4.2 NEIS NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLAND