Another successful prediction for Don in Hollister. This time the predicted
and occurring events occurred near Hayford or Weaverville, CA.
NCSN is showing the following two events today:

01/11/23 17:01:56 40.4N 123.4W 29.0 2.3Md 57 km SW of Weaverville, CA
01/11/23 23:57:48 40.7N 123.3W 28.2 2.4Md 27 km W of Weaverville, CA

Don had expected an earthquake between Nov 20 and Nov 24 (most likely
on Nov 22) within 40 km of 40.5N 123.6W with Ml 2.4-3.6. The first
epicenter occurs at 20 km, the second at 33 km from the predicted
location. Both occur within the time window (one day off the
predicted day) and both are within the given magnitude range allowing
for a 0.1 unit possible error in given magnitude. In this sense,
the prediction is a complete success.

Probability of random success:

Since November 23, 1998 (the past 3 years - 1095 days) there have
been 26 5-day periods during which an earthquake matching Don's predicted
parameters has occurred. In the same period 219 5-day periods have
occurred, so the probability of random success given the past
3-year history is 26/219 = 0.11 or odds of success about 1 in 9.

Good going, Don, I'd have to give you an "A" on this prediction.
Keep up the good work.

Don's Original forecast (Post #11138 posted Nov. 19) had read:

Dinsmore, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 19, 2001 at 14:14:26:

Magnitude: 2.4-3.6Md
From: 11/20/2001UTC - To: 11/24/2001UTC
Location: Dinsmore, California
Lat: 40.5N - Long: 123.6W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. At least I get to stay dry with this forecast.

Looking for a 2.4 to 3.6Md quake at 40.5N/123.6W. This is about 1Km NE of
Dinsmore, California. Should occur on 11/22/2001. Window opens on 11/20/2001
and will close on 11/24/2001. The radius on this will be 40Km.
Take Care...Don in creepy town