AFGHANISTAN (Mw~6) EARTHQUAKE FOLLOWS STRONG ELECTRON FLUX EVENT

SUMMARY

A moderately strong earthquake in Afghanistan/Tajikistan border
region occurred this afternoon at about 01:23 Sun Time (Nov. 24)
with Mw approximately 6.0. Seismicity throughout the day was relatively
quiet during the current proton storm. However, an electron flux
storm began at 19:20 UT (00:00 Sun time, exact midnight) while
the epicenter of the Afghanistan earthquake was exactly anti-solar.

For details of this electron storm see:

http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/particle/20011123_G8part_5m.txt

For graphics see:

http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html

This electron storm increased electron flux by nearly an order
of magnitude over yesterday's background flux rate (1,0E04 to 1.0E05).

A close connection appears to exist between this electron storm
and the subsequent Afghanistan earthquake whose parameters were:

O: 23NOV2001 20:43:01 36.3N 71.6E MB=5.9 NEIS AFGHAN-TAJIKISTAN BORD REG.

The region of Hindu Kush also has a statistically highly significant
(Z=+2.9) increase in strong events at this point in the lunar month (see
"Tidal Triggering" section below).

The reader of these reports may recall that a Mw 6.2 earthquake
occurred in the Fiji Islands last night which was simultaneous with
the strongest solar flare (X1.0) since November 4. It was this solar
flare whics probably led to the electron storm today, which appears
to have triggered the Afghanistan earthquake.

On the sunlit side, a similar earthquake occurred near the sub-solar
region in Guatemala about 20 minutes before the Afghanistan event.
The parameters of this sub-solar (it was actually 13:20 Sun Time
in Guatemala at the time of the electron storm commencement) earthquake were
given by CASC:

O: 23NOV2001 20:23:48 14.7N 90.7W MC=5.2 CASC GUATEMALA

GLOBAL
Other earthquakes listed since our last report of Mb>=4 have occurred
in the Fiji Islands (Mb 6.2, 4.7); Southern Iran (Mb 4.5); southern
Peru (Mb 5.3, 4.2); Guerrero, Mexico (Mb 4.6); Guatemala (Mb 5.0 and 4.6)
and Hokkaido (Mb 4.6).
Unusual earthquake (Ml 3.8) occurred in New South Wales,
Australia (Ml 3.8) and in Gansu, China (Mb 4.5). The Gansu event
is probably a FFA from the Kunlun Mountains great shock.

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity in the California/Nevada region today remained relatively
quiet with only 4 earthquake occurring with Ml>=2. The strongest of
these was a Ml 3.2 in the Hector Mine aftershock zone, only the second
event of Ml>=3 in southern California in the past week. The other
also occurred in the Hector Mine zone (near Ludlow) with Ml 3.0 on
November 21. Other events of Ml>=2 occurred in the Hayward region
(Ml 2.1) and near Hayford (Ml 2.3) in central and northern California
respectively. A Ml 2.2 was also recorded today in the Ocotillo area
of So. California.
A minor swarm of earthquakes also occurred in the Mammoth Lakes
region near the California/Nevada border this afternoon. This region
is often activated by solar flares and/or geomagnetic storms, however
this seems a bit early for the usual activation. Seismicity in the area is also
significantly correlated with this period in the lunar month (see
"Tidal Triggering" section below.

Two events were listed in the western Vancouver Island region
today (Ml 2.4, 2.2). No events of Ml>=3 were recorded in Alaska
or Hawaii. A Ml 2.3 was also observed in the Jackson Lake area
of Wyoming.
Other areas of the U.S. were not reporting, as the Thanksgiving
holiday kept many observatories non-operational today.

NEW ZEALAND

For the first day in more than a week, only light activity was recorded
in the region of New Zealand following yesterday's Ml 6.4 earthquake
in the Kermadec Island. As usual, IGNS made no reports, it being
a Saturday in New Zealand.
The on-line seismogram showed no significant regional activity today.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

Despite the proton and electron storms, the geomagnetic field
remained at quiet conditions throughout the day. No solar flares
of M- or X-class have been observed since the X1.0 flare last
night at 23:24 UT (Nov. 22).

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011123events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

There were no tropical storms reported today in the Atlantic,
Caribbean or eastern Pacific Ocean.

SO. INDIAN OCEAN

Tropical Cyclone 04s is currently near Diego Garcia in the South
Indian Ocean. It is expect to move to the westward over then next 48 hours.
Accompanying seismicity may occur in the Carlsberg Ridge area.

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200102.public.html

SO. CHINA SEA

Tropical depression 29W continued over the South China sea today.
29W is expected to dissipate in the next 36 hours. Little seismicity is
expected to be associated with this storm at this time. For a
public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200102.public.html

PHILIPPINES

Tropical depression 28W is currently located Southeast of Okinawa.
at about 14N 130E.
Seismic enhancement is still expected throughout the Philippine Islands
in the next 24 hours, however, the area to watch now is north of
current position. These storms often move northward, picking up
intensity and sideswipe the Japanese Islands. Current forecast
shows the storm in the Bonin Islands on Monday. Some seismic activity
along the Bonin/Volcano Islands area may occur in conjunction with
28W.

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 24 is the tenth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Alaska MB>=3.0 6 2.0 0.05
Greece MB>=4.0 8 2.0 0.05
Hawaii MB>=2.0 19 2.7 0.02
Kuriles MB>=4.0 22 1.9 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=3.0 19 2.2 0.05
East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 38 2.3 0.05
Hindu Kush MB>=4.0 20 2.9 0.01

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

No Regions

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND/AUSTRALIA

O: 23NOV2001 03:33 33.9S 148.2E Ml=3.8 AGSO Grenfell, NSW, Australia
Note (AGSO): This earthquake occurred about 3 km east of Grenfell, and about
180 northwest of Canberra. No felt reports have been receved at this time.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 22Nov2001 23:22:23 16.2S 177.9E MS=6.2 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS
O: 22Nov2001 23:22:24 15.8S 179.2E MS=6.0 GSR FIJI ISLANDS
Note: This is probably an FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake
as it occurs in a region where FFA were expected in the forecast:

"103-107 degrees***: ... Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

O: 22Nov2001 15:27:54 17.4S 179.0W MB=4.7 NEIS FIJI ISLANDS REGION

ASIA

O: 23Nov2001 20:43:01 36.4N 71.6E MW=5.9 NEIS AFGHAN-TAJIK BORD REG.
Note: This is probably an FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. earthquake as
it occurred at 17 degrees from CMT of that event in a region where FFA were
expected in the FFA forecast:

"17-19 degrees: ... Afghanistan,"

O: 22Nov2001 17:00:02 27.6N 57.7E MB=4.5 NEIS SOUTHERN IRAN

O: 21Nov2001 20:25:07 42.4N 143.9E MB=4.7 NEIS HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

O: 22Nov2001 10:34:59 14.1N 120.7E MS=4.2 GSR LUZON, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

O: 23Nov2001 03:43:07 34.2N 103.5E MS=3.9 GSR GANSU, CHINA
O: 23Nov2001 03:43:08 34.2N 103.4E MB=4.3 NEIS GANSU, CHINA
Note: This is an FFA from the Kunlun Mt. event as it lies at
10 degrees from that event, a distance at which FFA is expected.

O: 22Nov2001 02:59:18 41.2N 72.7E MB=4.5 NEIS KYRGYZSTAN

O: 22Nov2001 00:00:48 48.8N 152.4E MB=4.1 NEIS KURIL ISLANDS

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 23Nov2001 06:41:39 17.2N 99.9W MB=4.6 NEIS GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 06:41:39 17.0N 100.2W ML=5.0 SSN GUERRERO , MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 12:58:45 16.9N 100.3W ML=3.5 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 11:09:22 17.1N 100.2W ML=3.6 SSN GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 10:28:21 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.8 SSN GUERRERO, MEXICO
O: 23NOV2001 10:02:14 17.1N 100.2W ML=3.7 SSN GUERRERO, MEXICO

O: 23NOV2001 11:30:15 13.7N 91.9W ML=4.6 SSN COSTA GUATEMALA

O: 23NOV2001 05:03:52 12.9N 89.2W MC=4.2 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.
O: 23NOV2001 05:37:23 12.9N 88.1W MC=3.4 SIS GUATEMALA, C.A.

O: 22Nov2001 12:28:51 15.5S 70.2W MB=4.2 NEIS SOUTHERN PERU

O: 23NOV2001 07:02:17 10.1N 85.5W MC=4.2 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

O: 21NOV2001 08:50:57 10.5N 69.6W Mc=3.7 ULA Urdaneta, Venezuela
O: 22NOV2001 00:44:07 10.0N 70.2W Mc=3.4 ULA Torres, Venezuela

O: 21NOV2001 13:53:44 8.9N 71.2W Mc=3.1 ULA Caracciolo P, Venezuela
O: 22NOV2001 08:39:11 8.3N 71.2W Mc=2.9 ULA Arzobispo Chacon, Venezuela.
O: 22NOV2001 09:24:24 8.3N 71.2W Mc=2.5 ULA Arzobispo Chacon, Venezuela.

O: 22Nov2001 12:43:07 17.8S 71.7W MB=5.3 NEIS NEAR COAST OF PERU

O: 23NOV2001 11:30:11 13.8N 91.3W ML=4.5 CASC GUATEMALA

O: 23NOV2001 13:05:52 10.9N 86.5W MC=2.8 CASC COSTA RICA C.A.

O: 23NOV2001 20:23:48 14.7N 90.7W MC=5.2 CASC GUATEMALA

EUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

O: 22NOV2001 18:41: 6 39.0N 24.4E ML=4.0 NOA AEGEAN SEA, GREECE

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
O: 23Nov2001 17:06:42 34.6N 116.3W ML=3.2 NEIS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
O: 23NOV2001 17:06:42 34.6N 116.3W ML=3.2 SCSN SW of Ludlow, CA

O: 23NOV2001 17:01:56 40.3N 123.4W ML=2.3 NCSN SW of Hayfork, CA

O: 23NOV2001 12:55:14 32.2N 115.8W ML=2.2 SCSN SSE of Ocotillo, CA

O: 23NOV2001 21:06:23 37.7N 122.1W ML=2.1 NCSN N of Hayward, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 23NOV2001 15:36:46 53.9N 132.5W ML=2.2 PGC WSW Massett BC

O: 23NOV2001 13:00:29 49.2N 126.3W ML=1.2 PGC W Tofino BC

O: 23NOV2001 10:15:19 51.2N 131.1W ML=2.4 PGC WSW Bella Bella BC

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 23NOV2001 20:36:45 43.6N 110.3W ML=2.3 USBR E of Kelly, WY