KUNLUN MTS FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS CONTINUE IN FIJI, KERMADEC, LUZON ISLANDS

Now that we have all stuffed ourselves, here's a little light reading to take the edge off.

SUMMARY

The strongest earthquakes of the day appear to have once again been
FFA from the Kunlun Mts. great shock of 14 November with a bit of
push from other types of triggering.
Two earthquakes occurred this evening in the Fiji Islands (Mb 5.7 and 5.8 -
Ms probably greater then 6 from the looks of the seismograms. This was
one of two areas where events of M>6 were expected as FFA from Kunlun.
The earthquakes occurred very near local noon (sub-solar) and were
simultaneous with the first X-class flare since Nov. 4, 2001 (both X1.0).
This appears to be a classic example of solar flare triggering to keep
in your memory banks.
A Ml>6 earthquake also occurred earlier in the day in the Kermadec
Islands region of New Zealand. This event occurred 107-109 degrees
from the Kunlun Earthquake and was most likely an FFA from that event.
The third earthquake occurred in the Luzon/Mindoro area of the
Philippines. The event lies 35 degrees from the Kunlun earthquake, a
distance at which FFA area expected. It also occurred as a tropical
storm was hitting the eastern Philippines directly east of this epicenter.
This report had suggested yesterday that enhanced activity in the
Luzon, Philippines area was to be expected with the landfall of this
storm (28W). This event registered Mb 5.5 (GSSC).

GLOBAL

In other global activity, earthquake of Mb>=4 were recorded in the
Kyrgyzstan region (Mb 4.2); and south of the Mariana Islands.

U.S./CANADA

The U.S. and Canada saw a relatively low rate of seismicity today.
The most unusual event occurred north of Plattsburgh, N.Y. in the region
of southern Quebec (Ml 2.4).
Two events of Ml>3 occurred in Alaska near Homer (Ml 3.2) and
near Kodiak (Ml 3.4). One event occurred in northern Hawaii with preliminary
Ml 3.4.
The strongest event in the region since the last report appears
to occurred off the coast of Oregon with Ml>3.5. This is a preliminary
estimate, however, because parameters given by PNSN for this region
are strongly error-prone. An event of Ml 2.0 also occurred in the
Mt. St. Helens WA region this morning.
The California/Nevada region was also fairly quiet today seismically.
Only six earthquakes of Ml>=2 have occurred in this region since last
report. Three of these, including the largest in the region today,
occurred in the Geysers region, CA (Ml 2.7, 2.1, 2.1). The other M>=2
events were recorded near Parkfield (Ml 2.0); Ocotillo Wells (So. California)
(Ml 2.3) and near Tres Pinos (Central California) (Ml 2.0).
No reports were available from the eastern or Central U.S. today.

NEW ZEALAND

The strongest earthquake in New Zealand today was the Ml 6.4 in
the Kermadec Islands which may have been felt on North Island. In
addition to this event, a Ml 3.7 was also reported by IGNS near
Wanganui, North Island.
The on-line seismogram showed the Kermadec Island earthquake well
along with a number of smaller light regional quakes.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today, however an X1.0 class
flare occurred on the sun tonight, maximizing at 23:28 UT. This is the
first X-class flare since November 4 when a similar X1.0 flare (#600)
occurred. Two events of Mb 5.7 and 5.8 occurred in the Fiji Islands
which were nearly exactly sub-solar at the time of the maximum output
of this flare. The earthquakes occurred within several minutes of the
maximum flare intensity.
There is a seismic watch posted for the next two days for the
region within 20 degrees longitude of 180E (sub-solar) and 0E
(anti-solar). Maximum event size may increase up to 0.5 units
over previous estimates in this region which includes, Tonga/Fiji/
Kermadec/Vanuatu/New Zealand/Central Aleutians as sub-solar areas.
Shortly after the X1.0 flare the earth was hit by a proton storm.
We normally expect that seismicity will be subdued during the time
of the proton storm and will increase substantially as the proton
storm dies back to background and the sudden commencement storm
arrives. The CME is expected by SEC to impact the earth around the
24th of November.
In addition to the X1.0 flare, two M-class flares occurred today.
These flares had the following parameters as measured by GOES10.

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

5490 + 1700 1708 1725 M1.2
5520 + 2018 2036 2052 M3.8
5590 + 2254 2323 0003 X1.0

O: 22NOV2001 23:24:51 16.2S 177.9E Mb=5.8 NEIA FIJI ISLANDS
O: 22NOV2001 23:22:24 16.2S 177.9E Mb=5.7 NEIA FIJI ISLANDS
O: 22NOV2001 23:19:04 36.0N 117.9W Ml=1.1 SCSN Coso Junction, CA

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011122events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

SO. INDIAN OCEAN

Tropical Cyclone 04s is currently near Diego Garcia in the South
Indian Ocean. It is expect to move to the SE over then next 48 hours.
Accompanying seismicity may occur in the Carlsberg Ridge are or
south of India. For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/sp200102.public.html

SO. CHINA SEA

Tropical depression 29W continued over the South China sea today.
29W is expected to dissipate in the next 48 hours. Little seismicity is
expected to be associated with this storm at this time. For a
public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200102.public.html

PHILIPPINES

Tropical depression 28W is currently located East
of Samar, Philippines and moving northward. A moderate earthquake
of Mb 5.5 was recorded on Luzon and 28W hit the easternmost
portions of the Philippines this morning.

Seismic enhancement is still expected throughout the Philippine Islands
in the next 24-38 hours. Maximum event may increase
by up to 0.5 units magnitude during the period 24 - 27 November.

For a public advisory see:

http://www.wunderground.com/auto/HurricaneSite/tropical/wp200101.public.html

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 23 is the ninth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Mt ST. Helens MB>=1.0 55 4.1 0.01
Washington MB>=3.0 19 3.3 0.01
JMA MB>=4.0 14 2.0 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

East US MB>=1.0 -12 -2.3 0.04

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 22Nov2001 04:17:26 31.1S 176.7W MB=6.0 NEIS KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
O: 22Nov2001 04:17 31.7S 177.0W ML=6.4 IGNS KERMADEC ISLANDS, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) May have been felt on the east coast of the North Island.
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the moment tensor hypocenter
of the great Kunlun Earthquake. It lies at 107 degrees from that event
in an area and distance where FFA were expected as in the FFA forecast:

"103-107 degrees***: ... Tonga/Samoa"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

O: 22Nov2001 07:17 40.1S 174.8E ML=3.7 IGNS WANGANUI, N. ISLAND, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) This earthquake will probably have been felt in the Wanganui area.
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the moment tensor hypocenter
of the great Kunlun Earthquake. It lies at 107 degrees from that event
in an area and distance where FFA were expected:

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 22NOV2001 23:24:51 16.2S 177.9E Mb=5.8 NEIA FIJI ISLANDS
O: 22NOV2001 23:22:24 16.2S 177.9E Mb=5.7 NEIA FIJI ISLANDS
Note: This event is probably a FFA from the epicenter
of the great Kunlun Earthquake. It lies in an area where FFA were expected
as in the FFA forecast:

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

Fiji/Tonga/Samoa area"

ASIA

O: 22NOV2001 02:59:16 41.0N 72.7E Ms=4.2 GSSC KYRGYZSTAN

O: 22Nov2001 10:34:50 13.8N 120.6E M =5.5 NEI LUZON/MINDORO, PHILIPPINE ISL
Note: This earthquake occurred as a tropical storm was hitting the eastern
Philippine Islands (#28W). It is also probably a FFA from the Kunlun Mts.,
as it lies at at distance (35 degrees) and in a location (Luzon) where FFA were
expected in the forecast:

"34-36 degrees: Luzon, Philippines,.."

O: 22NOV2001 11:18:36 12.6N 142.5E Ms=4.2 GSSC SOUTH OF MARIANA ISLANDS

O: 21Nov2001 20:25:15 43.1N 143.9E MS=4.5 GSR HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
O: 21NOV2001 20:25 42.0N 142.5E Mj=5.0 NIED S_OFF_URAKAWA, JAPAN

O: 22NOV2001 14:10:50 11.5S 117.8E SR=4.8 AEIC1 SW WAIKABUBAK, INDONESIA
O: 22NOV2001 13:05:50 11.4S 116.6E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA

O: 22NOV2001 12:54:30 9.5S 113.4E SR=5.0 AEIC1 S JEMBER, INDONESIA

O: 21NOV2001 21:53:40 9.6S 115.2E SR=5.2 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 21NOV2001 17:04:00 9.5S 116.6E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S PRAYA, INDONESIA

O: 20NOV2001 20:53:50 6.8S 107.0E SR=4.7 AEIC1 N SUKABUMI, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 22NOV2001 04:44:34 12.0N 87.0W MC=3.9 CASC NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 21NOV2001 20:27:06 18.1N 103.2W ML=4.4 SSN COSTA DE MICHOACAN , MEXICO

O: 20NOV2001 23:48:01 17.0N 100.1W ML=3.7 SSN GUERRERO , MEXICO
O: 20NOV2001 23:46:46 17.0N 100.2W ML=3.4 SSN COSTA DE GUERRERO , MEXICO

O: 20NOV2001 21:22:24 15.6N 94.0W ML=4.2 SSN GOLFO DE TEHUANTEPEC , MEXICO

O: 20NOV2001 23:19:36 16.1N 98.1W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA GUERRERO-OAXACA , MEXICO
O: 20NOV2001 13:23:54 16.0N 97.5W ML=3.8 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MEXICO

O: 22NOV2001 18:27:58 20.3S 70.0W ML>3.0 DGF SE of IQUIQUE, CHILE

EUROPE

O: 22NOV2001 18:00:39 39.4N 26.9E ML=3.0 KAN BALIKESYR,TURKEY

O: 20NOV2001 20:55:23 35.2N 23.6E ML=4.0 NOA GREECE

O: 21NOV2001 21:17:14 38.6N 24.6E ML=4.0 NOA GREECE

O: 22NOV2001 02:54:19 43.1N 0.8W ML=2.1 STR SSW ARAMITS, FRANCE

O: 22NOV2001 06:20:17 43.0N 0.2W Ml=2.8 LDG PYRENEES

O: 21Nov2001 17:10:19 48.1N 16.7E ML=3.7 SED AUSTRIA

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 22NOV2001 16:05:27 33.2N 116.0W ML=2.3 SCSN NE of Ocotillo Wells, CA
O: 22NOV2001 16:14:54 33.2N 116.0W ML=1.9 SCSN SW of Salton City, CA

O: 22NOV2001 17:31:45 34.4N 117.9W ML=1.6 SCSN SE of Palmdale, CA

O: 22NOV2001 6:13:31 36.0N 120.5W ML=2.0 SCSN NW of Parkfield, CA
O: 22NOV2001 11:51:58 36.1N 120.6W ML=1.5 NCSN WSW of Coalinga, CA

O: 22NOV2001 22:04:35 36.7N 121.3W ML=2.0 NCSN SSW of Tres Pinos, CA

O: 22NOV2001 21:15:19 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.1 NCSN N of The Geysers, CA
O: 23NOV2001 2:15:43 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.7 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA
O: 22NOV2001 4:17:26 38.9N 122.8W ML=2.1 NCSN N of The Geysers, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 21NOV2001 21:24:05 43.9N 128.0W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF COAST OF OREGON

O: 21NOV2001 18:31:07 52.8N 132.3W ML=1.7 PGC 9 km SW Sandspit BC
O: 21NOV2001 18:28:16 52.9N 132.3W ML=2.8 PGC 4 km SW Sandspit BC

O: 20NOV2001 21:34:45 62.4N 141.2W ML=2.1 PGC 6 km SSW Dawson YT

O: 20NOV2001 17:08:53 52.5N 131.8W ML=2.5 PGC 0 km S Sandspit BC
O: 20NOV2001 17:08:45 52.5N 131.8W ML=2.5 PGC 8 km S Sandspit BC

O: 22NOV2001 12:52:26 46.2N 122.2W ML=2.0 PNSN NE of Mount St. Helens

O: 21NOV2001 23:26:25 48.2N 121.6W ML=1.7 PNSN S of Darrington, WA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 22NOV2001 23:22:41 47.4N 113.5W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA

O: 22NOV2001 08:07:16 44.7N 111.3W MD=0.9 MBMG MONTANA
O: 22NOV2001 05:14:35 44.7N 111.1W MD=0.0 MBMG MONTANA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 21NOV2001 23:14:11 46.1N 72.5W MN=2.4 GSC S from Trois-Rivieres, Que.

ALASKA

O: 21NOV2001 23:40:35 60.3N 151.3W ML=3.2 AEIC N of Homer, Alaska

O: 22NOV2001 01:23:12 58.3N 151.9W ML=3.4 AEIC NNE of Kodiak, Alaska

HAWAII

O: 22NOV2001 13:37:41 20.0N 155.5W ML=3.4 HVO SW of Honoka`a, Hawaii