Don,
I've spent 2 days in the field looking at folds near the Hosgri fault at Pt Arguello, Pt Pedernales with Bill Lettis a few years ago-the Hosgri fault is a southern continuation of the San Gregorio-so the overall fault system is quite long. I had not seen the study you posted, so thanks for that. The SCEC page shows a 3.3 in the last hour or so near Saratoga-like the Aptos 3.1 the other day it is not far from the San Andreas-the San Gregorio is quite a ways to the west.

Petra-the coulomb hypothesis (Mohr-Coulomb theory?) would not be the basis of a 30 year probability estimate of an earthquake on a given fault. They usually start with a long-term slip rate or geodetic rate, look at the amount of slip on the last event (see Don's post), and do the math for when the fault is ready for a similar earthquake. But, as the prediction for an earthquake in Parkfield on the San Andreas by the USGS for 1988 +/- 5 years showed (there has not yet been one of the predicted magnitude at Parkfield), this does not work all that well. When you say coulomb hypothesis, maybe I should be careful-maybe what you heard was based on the static stress calculations-I'm starting to get in over my head here so will stop.
Went camping last night at the fringes of eastern suburbia, and saw hundreds of meteors despite so-so light conditions. Chris
3.3 in Saratoga