MAJOR SEISMICITY CONTINUES TO BE FAR-FIELD AFTERSHOCKS (FFA) FROM KUNLUN

SUMMARY

The major global seismicity today continued to occur as FFA from the
Kunlun Mts. (Tibet) Mw 8.1 of Nov. 14. A likely FFA events occurred
at the core-mantle shadow zone boundary near 146 degrees distance
from Kunlun as a Ml 5.2 near the coast of Peru/Ecuador. A small earlier
shock near this position had been recognized in this report as being
a foreshock to today's event. At the p- and s- wave shadow zone boundary
at about 108 degrees from Kunlun a moderate Ml 4.7 was felt in the
Nelson area of South Island, New Zealand this morning. A Ml 1.3
also occurred in the New Madrid MO region at 108 degrees from the
Tibet mainshock.
A Mb 5.3 occurred also in the southern East Pacific Rise area, an
area near the antipode of the Kunlun quake which had been specifically
mentioned in the forecast as likely to see moderate FFA triggering.
Two other triggering distances were also showing especially strong
FFA activity today. These were at 44-46 degrees where earthquakes of
Mb 5+ occurred in the southern Kuril Islands (44 degrees distance);
Ml 3.8 occurred in Eastern Turkey (also 44 degrees); and a series
of poorly located events were occurring throughout westernmost Turkey
through Cyprus into the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. A series of
earthquakes in Poland also occurred today near this distance. At
34-36 degrees, earthquakes were occurring in Northern Iran (Mb 4.8, 4.3)
and the Caucasus/Caspian Sea region in the Ml 4 magnitude range.

GLOBAL

Little moderate seismic activity could be found in local or teleseismic
listings today which was outside expected FFA locales. The USGS
on-line seismograms, however did show some activity which has
not yet been listed and which is of moderate magnitude.
The eastern Caribbean Research Unit identified the only non-FFA
event listed of Mb>4 as a Ml 4.1 near Trinidad early this morning.

U.S./CANADA

The strongest earthquake listed in the U.S./Canada region today
occurred as a Ml 3.8 off the coast of Northern California about
150 km west of Trinidad, CA. This area is expected to see several
more events over the next several days, probably of lower magnitude
than this, however. In general, however, seismicity in California
was fairly low today with only six events of Ml>=2 recorded since
our last report. The most active area was the region near Calexico/
Ocotillo/El Centro where 3 events of Ml 2.5 were recorded. Further
north a Ml 2.3 was also listed. In Central and Northern California,
beside the event off the northern Coast, the only quakes of Ml>=2
occurred in the Geysers region (Ml 2.1, 2.2). A Ml 2.0 (later listed
as Ml 1.4) may have occurred north of Mammoth Lakes near Hawthorne
NV, as well.
Three earthquakes of Ml>=3 were recorded in Alaska, two in Central
Alaska (Ml 3.0, 3.1) and the third south of Anchorage (Ml 3.4). No
such events were listed today for Hawaii.
CERI recorded a microearthquake in the New Madrid region at
108 degrees from the Kunlun Mts. great shock, however, perhaps
due to the weekend holiday, no other activity was reported from
the U.S. or Canada today.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS reported a moderate earthquake near Nelson, South Island,
(Ml 4.7) which occurred since the last report. This event was
felt in the general area of Nelson. This event could be considered an
FFA from the great Kunlun Mts. (Mw 8.1) on Nov. 14. It lies at 108 degrees
from that event, near the boundary of the s-wave shadow zone where strong
FFA triggering is expected.
The IGNS seismogram showed only a few light regional earthquakes since
the Nelson quake.

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html

GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained generally quiet today with a
weak geomagnetic storm about mid-day which was not expected to
impact global seismicity. There was one moderate, long-lasting
M-class solar flare with the following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

4380 + 0449 0525 0611 M2.8

No seismicity has been associated coincident with this flare.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011117events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were located around the world's oceans today.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 18 is the fourth day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caribbean MB>=4.0 20 2.3 0.05
Caucasus MB>=4.0 25 3.1 0.01
East Pacific Rise MB>=4.0 35 2.1 0.05
Japan MB>=4.0 23 3.3 0.01
JMA MB>=4.0 21 2.9 0.01
Kanto MB>=4.0 61 3.9 0.01
So.California MB>=0.0 11 3.1 0.01
Indian Ocean MB>=4.0 16 1.9 0.05
Kamchatka MB>=4.0 33 2.4 0.04
Washington MB>=2.0 33 3.1 0.01
West Pacific MB>=4.0 23 2.3 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

China MB>=4.0 -17 -2.1 0.05
Italy MB>=4.0 -30 -2.0 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 16Nov2001 14:11 41.6S 173.2E ML=4.7 IGNS So. of Nelson, N.Z.
Note: (IGNS) May have been felt in the Nelson and Marlborough regions.
Note: This event could be considered an FFA from the great Kunlun
Mts. (Mw 8.1) on Nov. 14. It lies at 108 degrees from that event, near
the boundary of the s-wave shadow zone where strong FFA triggering
is expected.

ASIA

O: 18Nov2001 03:49:43 45.2N 148.4E MS=4.6 GSR SO. KURIL ISLANDS
Note: This is probably an FFA from the Kunlun great shock. The epicenter
lies at 44 degrees from that event in an area and distance where
FFA were expected as stated in the forecast:

"43-45 degrees: Istanbul area, western Turkey, Romania, Cyprus, Finland,
Red Sea, Ethiopia, So. Sumatera, Celebes, Mindanao, SO. KURIL ISLANDS"

and

"The most likely events of Mw>=6 in the next 10 days appear to be:

...... Southern Kuriles"

A number of other events have been reported in western Turkey, Cyprus
and the Red Sea today, but hav yet to be verified.

O: 17Nov2001 12:14:44 30.1N 50.3E MS=4.3 GSR NORTHERN IRAN
F: 14NOV2001 #97-23g 31.7N 50.8E 3.5-4.5 BBAAA So. Iran
Note: This event may be an FFA of the great Kunlun quake. It lies at
34 degrees from that event in an area and distance where FFA are
expected as stated in the forecast:

"34-36 degrees: ... Eastern Turkey, Iraq, Caucasus, E. Gulf of Aden"

Other events have been reported in the Gulf of Aden/Iraq/Caucasus
regoin today, but are not verified at this time.

O: 17Nov2001 06:33:47 39.3N 51.9E MS=3.4 GSR CASPIAN SEA

O: 18Nov2001 01:16:57 52.4N 160.0E MS=4.0 GSR OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATK

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 17Nov2001 16:30:54 3.4S 77.8W MB=5.2 NEIS PERU-ECUADOR BORDER REGION
Note: This could be considered a FFA from the Kunlun great shock. It
lies at 146 degrees from that event at edge of the core-mantle shadow
zone, a region of expected strong FFA triggering. The forecast had said:

"142-146 degrees: Ecuador ..."

The possibility of a larger event in this region was re-emphasized in the
daily report from November 15 following a small Mb 4.1 in the area. That
report had stated (in the Summary section):

"An unusual event (Mb 4.1; AAAAA_ also occurred at 146 degrees from Kunlun
in Peru. Although small, this may be a foreshock to a larger earthquake
in the next week."

O: 16NOV2001 18:33:59 18.6N 104.1W ML=4.0 SSN COSTA COLIMA , MX

O: 17NOV2001 04:09:19 10.9N 87.8W MC=3.5 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.
O: 17NOV2001 18:01:54 11.1N 87.3W MC=3.6 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 18NOV2001 02:41:20 13.8N 90.3W MC=4.9 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 13NOV2001 17:55:05 25.0S 70.3W ML=4.0 DGF NE of TALTAL, CHILE

O: 17NOV2001 01:34:39 27.6S 69.6W ML=4.3 DGF TIERRA AMARILLA, CHILE

CARIBBEAN

O: 17NOV2001 01:45 10.8N 61.1W Ml=4.1 SRU Toco/Trinidad, Venezuela
Note (SRU): Felt in the Maracas Valley, Las Lomas and Diego Martin, Venezuela.

O: 14NOV2001 09:18:38 19.2N 66.6W ML=3.3 PRSN North of Puerto Rico

O: 09NOV2001 02:12:29 19.1N 64.8W ML=3.8 PRSN Virgin Islands

EUROPE

O: 18NOV2001 03:01:36 35.2N 28.5E ML=3.7 KAN AKDENYZ,TURKEY

O: 16NOV2001 01:23:41 40.3N 33.8E ML=3.8 KAN CANKIRI,TURKEY

O: 15NOV2001 18:15:20 35.4N 31.4E ML=3.7 KAN AKDENYZ,TURKEY
O: 15NOV2001 13:15:44 35.9N 31.1E ML=3.7 KAN AKDENYZ,TURKEY

O: 16NOV2001 20:21:02 35.7N 25.9E ML=3.7 NOA GREECE

OCEANIA

O: 17NOV2001 19:02:11 24.4S 115.9W MB=5.3 NEIS SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
Note: This may be a FFA from the Kunlun Mt. China great quake. It lies
in a region where FFA were expected as stated in the forecast:

"Secondary location where event tend to occur but are not
as large or as likely . MB>=4.8 considered likely in next
10 days.

Southern East Pacific Rise..."

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 18NOV2001 2:17:00 41.2N 125.9W ML=3.8 PNSN OFF THE COAST NO. CALIFORNIA
O: 18NOV2001 2:17:00 41.2N 125.9W ML=3.8 NCSN W of Trinidad, CA

O: 17NOV2001 15:01:29 32.8N 115.6W ML=2.5 SCSN WSW of El Centro, CA

O: 17NOV2001 10:14:01 33.1N 115.7W ML=2.5 SCSN WSW of Obsidian Butte, CA

O: 17NOV2001 8:53:22 33.6N 115.5W ML=2.3 SCSN SW of Desert Center, CA

O: 16NOV2001 22:49:14 34.6N 118.6W ML=2.1 SCSN N of Castaic Lake dam, CA

O: 18NOV2001 0:02:26 36.6N 121.8W ML=1.6 NCSN ENE of Seaside, CA

O: 17NOV2001 18:52:35 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.2 NCSN NW of The Geysers, CA
O: 17NOV2001 18:52:08 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.1 NCSN NW of The Geysers, CA

O: 17NOV2001 17:57:20 38.3N 118.6W ML=2.1 NCSN W of Qualeys Camp, NV
O: 18NOV2001 5:37:35 36.0N 120.5W ML=1.5 SCSN NW of Parkfield, CA

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 17NOV2001 20:39:12 44.6N 110.6W MD=0.5 MBMG YELLOWSTONE, WY

O: 17NOV2001 04:56:40 47.7N 113.8W MD=0.0 MBMG SEELEY LAKE, MONTANA

O: 16NOV2001 21:06:50 49.3N 114.6W MD=0.0 MBMG SO CANADA/MONTANA

EASTERN U.S./CANADA

O: 18NOV2001 4:25:59 36.1N 89.7W ML=1.3 CERI SSW of Caruthersville, TN
Note: This earthquake is located at 108 degrees from the Kunlun Mt.
mainshock, near the S-wave shadow zone boundary, an area of expected
FFA.

ALASKA

O: 18NOV2001 01:45:16 62.4N 149.8W ML=3.1 AEIC ENE of Talkeetna, Alaska

O: 18NOV2001 02:43:41 61.8N 156.3W ML=3.6 AEIC WNW of Anchorage, Alaska

O: 18NOV2001 03:29:25 63.8N 149.1W ML=3.0 AEIC WSW of Healy, Alaska