Re: 3.1 Aptos, Possible Foreshock
Posted by Petra Challus on November 16, 2001 at 13:56:52:

Hi Chris in the burbs,

Life is full of mysteries, so that's why God gave men the inclination to become scientists. He gave women something else, intuition. But I try really hard not to use that only. Day before yesterday, I saw a pattern I'd seen before and "felt" rather certain there would be a quake near the 3.0 range north of the recent list of quakes in the Gilroy/Hollister corridor.

Today, I opened the USGS map and had a look at the quake that arrived and immediately I got a sense of dread feeling in my gut. Then my thought process took me to the close proximity of the Loma Prieta quake and it didn't make me feel any better. Actually worse.

So I thought about it for awhile, came back two or three times to look at the quake on the map to see if the feeling remained the same, unfortunately it did. Therefore, I decided to go out on a limb and just post the forecast.

I think by now you have read Pam's post, which is just as I expected. Before moderate to large quakes people are sensitive to them. Irritability is just one of a long list of complaints. Animals sense these things as well as I'm sure you are aware.

I don't know with 100% accuracy that this earthquake will materialize, but all of my senses tell me it will. If I'm wrong, its no big deal. I'm just wrong. But I did post the message with great seriousness. Actually, in this case, I would prefer to be wrong than right. I don't like the idea of folks being shaken up and frightened, but on the other hand, if I think its possible, I'd rather say so, than remain on the fence and in hindsight felt badly that I didn't. I hate those kinds of choices.

While I do hear some earthquakes before they happen, in this case this location is to close to me to hear because the sound would blow my ears out. So I won't it hear it. Most likely no one in the immediate Bay Area who hears ear tones would hear it either; but they will get other symptoms. After 3 years of studying earthquake sensitives, I know the limitations we all face and what happens when you are to close to hearing them.

While I am an avid student of seismology I also know that in the greater sense, it is studied in hindsight, not foresight. While one can make long term or intermediate term probabilities, that is a long, long way from immediate possibilities. So perhaps in time, much, much time, that to can change.

I'm leaving to go the the San Francisco Airport in a little over an hour, and you can bet your booties I hope it doesn't arrive while I'm down there. There is no worse place to be than in a crowd of people during an earthquake, not to mention the Golden Gate Bridge. The earthquake chaser part of me really enjoys quakes, but only under the safest conditions.

So before anyone else tells you, I'll tell you first. I am a psychic person, not one like Gordon Michael Scallion that runs around saying big bad earthquakes are going to happen, but one who tries diligently to try and know a little about the probabilities before I hop out there and make a forecast.

Well, I've got to go and do something really normal, vacuum the house before my son arrives.

Petra, hanging ten very near the RCF.