This is a good, testable prediction, Petra. I checked the statistics to be sure this
event would not let you down if it occurred. Since Jan 1, 1999 (1056 days) there
have been 17 11-day periods which have contained an event which would be
deemed successful given the parameters of your prediction (within 40 km of
San Jose City Hall Ml 2.8-3.8 within 40 km of 37.33N 121.9W). During this
same time there have been 96 such 11-day windows. So your a-priori (by chance)
probability of success is 17/96 =0.18 , or odds of about 1 in 6 of success.
That is as good as Don often does, Good luck!!