Hi Chris. Your explanation was clear.

What I mean by “weak link” is the faults in the Bay Area for the most part are showing movement where as the southern segment of the Rodgers Creek fault isn’t. When the surrounding faults become locked tighter then the southern section of the Rodgers Creek fault then it will be the “weak link” and will release the stored energy either with one large quake or several moderate ones. The problem with this is that there is no way of knowing when there are no more surrounding weak links.

As to my forecasts of earthquakes. Lets just say I have a good supply of raw onions and garlic. Lowell has told me in the past that my accuracy rate is above 90%. I have no idea as to what it is now. I analyze all my hits and misses as well as the ones I don’t post and I’m starting to see a pattern. As to its being a long term, or a short term pattern only time will tell.

I live in the town of Hollister about 3 blocks west of the Calaveras fault and about 7 miles east of the San Andreas fault. While it is true that these two faults are always slipping we do have other faults in the area that are quite capable of producing a quake of 6.5 and larger. One of those faults is the Quien Sabe, which is located about 5 miles east of where I live.

Again I would like to say welcome to the zoo. Take Care…Don in creepy town

PS. You may want to check Petra's site.