GREAT EARTHQUAKE (Mw 8.1) HITS KUNLUN MTS in QINGHAI/XINJIANG, CHINA BORDER AREA

SUMMARY

This morning a major earthquake (Mw 8.1) struck China's Qinghai Province,
along the border with the neighbouring province of Xinjiang. This is
a very sparsely populated region situated in the Kunlun Mountains.

The last major earthquake in China was in 1997 on November 8th
1997. it had a magnitude of 7.9Ms and was centered
to the west of today's quake, 32 kms NNE of the town of
Mani in Xizang Province. There were no casualties from that
event. This earthquake struck two days after an X9.4 solar flare had
occurred on Nov. 6 at 11:51 UT. A major geomagnetic storm followed
and was strongest on Nov. 8 with the sudden commencement at about
09:00-11:00 UT just as the Xizang earthquake occurred.
The earthquake may have been immediately triggered by effects from a
C-Class solar flare which maximized at the time of the earthquake.
This was the largest flare recorded today. SEC gives the flare the
following parameters:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

3730 + 0919 0924 0929 C5.8

The area may also have been strongly affected by the geomagnetic
storm of November 6-7 (AA 101). Strong global events are expected between
4-6 days following such storms. This event occurred 7 days
after the storm.

This report had stated on November 6, 2001 regarding the possibility of a
large event at this time:

" This seismicity will probably be most prominent within
20 degrees longitude of 59W and 121E (anti- and sub-solar at 03:54 UT)
and within 120W and 60E (sub- and anti-solar at 20:00 UT, the start
of the storm sequence). Of course, as usual, high latitudes and areas
near the geomagnetic equator are also susceptible to induced seismicity.
...Strongest seismicity (i.e. events of Mw>6 and in this case probably
AT LEAST ONE EVENT OF Mw>7) is most likely to occur 4-6 days after the
storm commencement in the sub- or anti-solar regions or at high
latitudes. This would place these events around 10-12 November.
Enhanced seismicity in volcanic regions (Volcanos or volcanic arcs and
mid-ocean ridges) should also increase around November 10-12."

The epicenter of this event falls 30 degrees longitude east from the
first sub-solar location, and 30 degrees longitude west from the
second, so the region was sub-solar throughout the major portion of the
geomagnetic storm, making it a good possible area for geomagnetic
triggering.
Comparisons of NEIS and GSSR parameters as:

O: 14NOV2001 09:26:14 36.2N 90.6E Ms=7.5 GSSC SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
O: 14NOV2001 09:26:10 36.0N 90.5E Ms=8.1 NEIS SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

Magnitude range has been adjusted to account for Geomagnetic triggering
and far-field triggering effects from New Britain.

SEISMIC HISTORY OF AREA:

No earthquakes Mw>=7 have ever been recorded within 200 km of today's
epicenter, making this a truly unique event. There have been only
four such events within 500 km, of which today's event is the largest.
These occurred on Oct 20, 1908 (Mw 7.0); May 22, 1927 (Mw 8.0);
July 14, 1973 (Mw 7.5) and November 8, 1997 (Mw 7.7).

Table 1 lists the parameters of earthquake of Mw>=7 within 500 km of
today's NEIC epicenter.

Table 1: Seismicity within 200 km of 36.0N 90.6E (Ms>=7)

MO DA HR MN SC YEAR S LATIT E LONG DEPT MW

8 20 09 53 00 1908 32.000N 89.000E 60 7.0
5 22 00 00 00 1927 36.000N 96.000E 0 8.0
7 14 04 51 21 1973 35.200N 86.500E 32 7.5
11 08 10 02 48 1997 35.122N 87.276E 0 7.7

A far-field aftershock forecast from this earthquake was published.

GLOBAL

In other global activity, earthquakes of MB>=4.5 occurred in
Greece (Mb 4.5); the Timor Sea (Mb 4.8, 5.3); the Tonga and Samoa
regions (Mb 5.1, 5.2); the South Sandwich Islands (Mb 4.0); the
Mid-Indian Ridge (Mb 4.0); and in the aftershock zone to the east
of the Qinghai earthquake this morning.

U.S./CANADA

Seismicity appeared to settle down in the U.S. today. There were
no events of Ml>=3 recorded. The largest events were of Ml 2.9 and 2.8. These
occurred in the Coso Junction region, off Petrolia, off the coast of
Northern California and near Hemet, So. California.

The largest earthquake in North America occurred in the Akutan
Island/Unimak Island area of Alaska (Ml 4.6). No earthquakes of
Ml>=3 were recorded in Canada or Hawaii and no events of Ml>=2
were located east of the west Coast states.

NEW ZEALAND

IGNS reported one earthquake today - a Ml 4.1 West of Seddon,
South Island which was felt in the general region. The on-line
seismogram also shows a number of other mild regional events today.
(The Seddon event is the one with the red s- and p- arrivals on
the seismogram).

The IGNS on-line Seismometer can be found at:
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/latest_drum.html
GEOMAGNETIC/SOLAR FIELDS

The geomagnetic field remained quiet today. Two solar flares
of interest were observed. The first was a C5.6 which maximized
at the time of the great Kunlun Mountains earthquake. The second
was an M2.1 this afternoon. Following are the parameters for
these flare:

Flare # START MAX END CLASS

3730 + 0919 0924 0929 C5.8
2203 2211 2234 M2.1

A number of earthquakes in California fell clost to the times of these
flares including:

2202 Julian CA Ml 0.9
2203 Ocotillo Wells, CA Ml 2.1
2228 The Geysers CA ML 2.5

and

0913 to 0923 Bombay Beach Ml 2.4, 1.7, 1.7, 2.1

After this the Bombay Beach swarm appears to have dissipated with
one additional event at 13:23 (Ml 2.1). The great Kunlun Mt. earthquake
occurred at 0926 and may have been related to this shut-off as well.

For general space weather conditions see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/today.html
For Solar flare data see:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20011114events.txt

TROPICAL STORMS

No tropical storms were located around the world's oceans today.

TIDAL TRIGGERING (LUNAR)

Statistics have been done on many regions of the world in terms of
relationship of significant regional earthquakes with respect to lunar cycle.
Each report will summarize the most likely areas for tidal triggering
for the next day based on these statistics. It is expected
that tidal triggering will add an additional 0.5 - 1.0 units of
magnitude to events which are about to occur or will move these
events forward in time by up to seven days in the regions where
there is a statistical correlation between lunar phase and
earthquakes.

November 15 is the first day after the beginning of the lunar month.
Regions most likely to experience tidal triggering
on this day (With associated magnitude ranges; the percent change in
seismicity rate over background seismicity rate on this
day of the lunar month; statistical z-value and
significance level) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Caucasus MB>=4.0 18 2.3 0.04
Idaho MB>=1.0 20 2.6 0.03
Italy MB>=4.0 43 2.8 0.02
Kuriles MB>=4.0 34 2.9 0.01
Tonga MB>=4.0 27 1.9 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=0.0 46 2.0 0.05
Mammoth Lakes MB>=2.0 37 1.9 0.05

Regions expected to experience reverse triggering (i.e. they are
unlikely to experience a significant event at this period of the
lunar cycle) are:

Region Magnitude range %change z-value Significance level

Central America MB>=4.0 -10 -2.0 0.05
Canada MB>=0.0 -29 -2.5 0.03
So. Alaska MB>=3.0 -7 -2.2 0.05

EARTHQUAKE LISTINGS

GLOBAL

NEW ZEALAND

O: 14Nov2001 05:32 41.7S 173.8E ML=4.1 IGNS W of Seddon, N.Z.

SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS

O: 14Nov2001 16:52:44 20.3S 175.9W MB=5.1 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS

O: 14Nov2001 13:38:46 15.1S 174.2W MB=5.2 NEIS TONGA ISLANDS

O: 13Nov2001 22:46:50 6.7S 153.8E MB=4.9 NEIS NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

ASIA

O: 14nov2001 09:26:10 36.0N 090.5E MS=8.1 ASC E of Jishilake, China

O: 14Nov2001 18:07:36 8.9S 124.1E MB=4.8 NEIS TIMOR REGION
O: 14Nov2001 17:13:04 8.8S 124.2E MB=5.3 NEIS TIMOR REGION

O: 14Nov2001 21:23:32 35.7N 94.0E MB=4.8 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 11:40:25 35.9N 94.0E MB=5.2 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 10:58:12 35.7N 93.9E MB=5.5 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 10:41:20 36.3N 91.1E HN=0.0 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 09:45:16 35.7N 93.3E MB=5.5 NEIS QINGHAI, CHINA
O: 14Nov2001 09:26:10 36.0N 90.5E MW=7.8 NEIS SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

O: 14Nov2001 08:34:40 41.6N 73.0E HN>4.0 NEIS KYRGYZSTAN

O: 14Nov2001 05:58:02 13.6N 120.5E MB=4.4 NEIS MINDORO, PHILIPPINES

O: 12NOV2001 17:56 36.3N 141.6E Mj=4.5 NIED FAR_E_OFF_IBARAKI_PREF, JAPAN

O: 13NOV2001 10:32:00 2.7N 98.0E SR=5.2 AEIC1 W SIDIKALANG, INDONESIA

O: 12NOV2001 21:40:00 11.0S 113.3E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S JEMBER, INDONESIA
O: 12NOV2001 21:37:10 10.9S 113.4E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S JEMBER, INDONESIA
O: 12NOV2001 21:32:20 10.9S 113.4E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S JEMBER, INDONESIA

O: 12NOV2001 18:58:40 9.1S 124.2E SR=4.9 AEIC1 PANTAIMAKASAR, INDONESIA

O: 13NOV2001 14:02:50 11.4S 115.0E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA
O: 13NOV2001 07:50:50 11.5S 115.0E SR=4.9 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA
O: 12NOV2001 17:25:10 11.7S 115.2E SR=4.8 AEIC1 S DENPASAR, INDONESIA
O: 12NOV2001 07:31:00 10.2S 114.2E SR=5.0 AEIC1 SW DENPASAR, INDONESIA

O: 12NOV2001 03:59:40 1.2N 123.2E SR=5.6 AEIC1 N LIMBOTO, INDONESIA

CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA

O: 14NOV2001 05:43:58 13.0N 89.2W MC=3.7 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 13NOV2001 15:51:19 15.7N 98.2W ML=4.2 SSN COSTA DE OAXACA , MX

O: 14NOV2001 08:42:13 8.6N 83.0W MC=4.2 CASC COSTA RICA, C.A.

O: 13NOV2001 17:57:37 10.9N 87.8W MC=3.8 SIS NICARAGUA, C.A.

O: 14NOV2001 05:43:58 13.0N 89.2W MC=3.7 SIS EL SALVADOR, C.A.
O: 14NOV2001 11:08:27 12.8N 88.9W MC=3.6 SIS EL SALVADOR, C.A.
O: 14NOV2001 13:07:18 12.1N 89.7W MC=4.1 SIS EL SALVADOR, C.A.

EUROPE

O: 14NOV2001 14:27:24 36.9N 27.9E ML=3.5 KAN MUDLA, TURKEY
Note: This event was probably an FFA of the great Kunlun MT. earthquake.
The FFA forecast had stated:

"The most likely events of M>=5 in the next 10 days on the
basis of history and far-field triggering theory appear to be:

Westernmost and easternmost Turkey"

and

"43-45 degrees: Istanbul area, western Turkey"

Istanbul lies at 39-40N 28E.

O: 13NOV2001 17:02:02 57.0N 5.4W ML=2.2 BGS FORT WILLIAM HIGHLAND, ENGLAND

O: 14Nov2001 19:55:44 38.1N 23.7E MB=4.5 NEIS GREECE

OCEANIA

O: 14Nov2001 16:38:16 55.8S 29.1W MB=4.0 NEIS SOUTH SANDWICH ISL REGION

U.S/CANADA

CALIFORNIA/NEVADA

O: 14Nov2001 12:40:43 36.0N 117.9W ML=2.9 NEIS CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER
O: 14NOV2001 6:59:58 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.3 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 14NOV2001 6:23:12 36.1N 117.9W ML=1.9 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 14NOV2001 0:12:34 36.0N 117.9W ML=2.4 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 14Nov2001 05:41:06 40.3N 124.5W MD=2.8 NEIS NEAR COAST OF N CALIF.
O: 14NOV2001 5:41:06 40.3N 124.5W ML=2.8 NCSN WNW of Punta Gorda, CA

O: 14NOV2001 22:03:43 33.2N 116.0W ML=2.1 SCSN ENE of Ocotillo Wells, CA
O: 14NOV2001 9:13:00 33.3N 115.7W ML=2.4 SCSN S of Bombay Beach, CA
O: 14NOV2001 13:03:24 33.3N 115.7W ML=2.1 SCSN SE of Bombay Beach, CA
O: 14NOV2001 9:23:26 33.3N 115.7W ML=2.1 SCSN SE of Bombay Beach, CA

O: 14NOV2001 10:21:00 33.7N 116.8W ML=2.8 SCSN ESE of Hemet, CA

O: 14NOV2001 13:26:17 35.6N 117.5W ML=2.0 SCSN E of Ridgecrest, CA

O: 14NOV2001 19:23:38 35.8N 121.2W ML=2.0 SCSN N of San Simeon, CA

O: 14NOV2001 9:26:40 36.0N 121.0W ML=2.2 NCSN W of San Ardo, CA

O: 14NOV2001 12:40:43 36.0N 117.9W ML=2.9 NCSN ESE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 14NOV2001 6:23:13 36.1N 117.9W ML=1.7 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 14NOV2001 19:58:30 36.1N 117.9W ML=1.9 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA
O: 14NOV2001 6:59:58 36.1N 117.9W ML=2.3 NCSN NE of Coso Junction, CA

O: 14NOV2001 12:39:34 36.7N 121.3W ML=2.0 NCSN S of Tres Pinos, CA
O: 14NOV2001 15:46:50 36.7N 121.3W ML=2.5 NCSN S of Tres Pinos, CA

O: 14NOV2001 10:51:03 37.0N 121.6W ML=2.1 NCSN S of Gilroy, CA

O: 14NOV2001 22:28:51 38.8N 122.8W ML=2.5 NCSN NNE of The Geysers, CA

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CANADA

O: 10NOV2001 20:20:06 48.9N 129.1W ML=4.4 PGC 5 km W Tofino BC

O: 14NOV2001 18:56:02 46.2N 122.3W ML=2.3 PNSN W of Mount St. Helens
Note: This is the largest event within 20 km of Mt. St. Helens since Sept.
6, 1997 when a Ml 2.6 occurred. Events of Ml 2.3-2.4 have occurred
since then on Oct 12, 1998, Oct 22, 1999, Feb 22, 2000, and Aug. 6, 2001.

O: 14NOV2001 1:50:51 47.7N 117.4W ML=1.2 PNSN NNE of Spokane, WA
O: 13NOV2001 20:26:26 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.0 PNSN N of Spokane, WA
O: 13NOV2001 7:39:05 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.1 PNSN NW of Spokane, WA
O: 13NOV2001 5:41:45 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.3 PNSN N of Spokane, WA

O: 12NOV2001 9:44:00 46.7N 121.9W ML=1.1 PNSN SW of Mount Rainier

O: 10NOV2001 3: 3:22 45.8N 122.5W ML=0.8 PNSN SO OF MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 10NOV2001 7:41:25 45.8N 122.5W ML=1.5 PNSN SO OF MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON
O: 10NOV2001 9:47:19 45.8N 122.5W ML=0.9 PNSN SO OF MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON

O: 10NOV2001 19:39:23 44.7N 129.1W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF COAST OF OREGON

O: 10NOV2001 19:55:42 46.2N 122.1W ML=0.6 PNSN MT ST HELENS, WASHINGTON

O: 10NOV2001 20:21:52 49.2N 129.5W ML>4.0 PNSN VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION

O: 11NOV2001 9:49:21 46.2N 120.4W ML=1.6 PNSN WASHINGTON
O: 11NOV2001 12:56:19 46.7N 120.7W ML=1.2 PNSN WASHINGTON
O: 10NOV2001 23:16:25 47.5N 120.6W ML=0.9 PNSN WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 16:16:69 47.7N 120.1W ML=1.0 PNSN WASHINGTON

O: 11NOV2001 13:59:16 43.9N 128.1W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 11NOV2001 15:57:28 43.9N 128.3W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

O: 11NOV2001 16: 0:29 47.7N 117.4W ML=4.0 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 11NOV2001 17:21:33 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.1 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 3: 2:62 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.3 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 3: 7:40 47.7N 117.4W ML=1.9 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 3:10:75 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.4 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 11:44:18 47.7N 117.4W ML=1.7 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 13:25:59 47.7N 117.4W ML=1.9 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 13NOV2001 5:40: 5 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.3 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 13NOV2001 7:38:65 47.7N 117.4W ML=2.1 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 13NOV2001 20:25:86 47.7N 117.4W ML=3.0 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 14NOV2001 1:50:51 47.7N 117.4W ML=1.2 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
O: 14NOV2001 16:40:80 47.7N 117.3W ML=1.6 PNSN SPOKANE, WASHINGTON

O: 12NOV2001 4:45:54 47.8N 122.8W ML=0.9 PNSN WASHINGTON
O: 12NOV2001 17:25:20 46.0N 122.8W ML=0.9 PNSN SO. WASHINGTON

O: 12NOV2001 18:27:-2 43.0N 128.4W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

O: 12NOV2001 19:10:44 44.1N 127.7W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 12NOV2001 19: 3:37 43.9N 127.9W ML>4.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 12NOV2001 19:16:13 43.8N 129.2W ML>3.5 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

O: 12NOV2001 20:53: 3 50.5N 129.0W ML=3.7 PNSN VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION

O: 13NOV2001 10:14: 1 48.9N 122.5W ML=2.5 PNSN NO. WASHINGTON

O: 14NOV2001 16:26:46 42.3N 122.0W ML>2.0 PNSN CALIFORNIA/OREGON Border

ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA

O: 11NOV2001 13:22:22 47.9N 69.9W MN=2.5 GSC CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE, QUE.
UP:15NOV2001 BAAA 47.7N 69.8W 7P (11-06-01)

ALASKA

O: 14Nov2001 02:50:56 54.0N 164.1W MB=4.8 NEIS UNIMAK ISL REGION, ALASKA
O: 14NOV2001 02:50:57 53.9N 164.0W ML=4.5 AEIC ESE of Akutan, Alaska
O: 14Nov2001 02:51:01 54.4N 164.0W MS=4.0 GSR UNIMAK ISLAND REGION
O: 14NOV2001 02:50:50 54.6N 166.5W ML=4.9 AEIC NW of Akutan, Alaska

O: 14NOV2001 01:02:23 61.8N 151.4W ML=3.1 AEIC SW of Talkeetna, Alaska