All right, Don,
Another great forecast - even if PNSN was a bit late getting around
to including it in the catalog.
PNSN is showing the following events which match Don's predicted event
in this region:

O: 11NOV2001 13:59:16 43.9N 128.1W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 11NOV2001 15:57:28 43.9N 128.3W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
===>O: 12NOV2001 18:27:00 43.0N 128.4W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 12NOV2001 19:10:44 44.1N 127.7W ML>3.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 12NOV2001 19: 3:37 43.9N 127.9W ML>4.0 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
O: 12NOV2001 19:16:13 43.8N 129.2W ML>3.5 PNSN OFF THE COAST OF OREGON

Source:
http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/CATALOG_SEARCH/cat.search.html

Remember, that earthquakes off the coast are nearly always underestimated
in magnitude by at least 1 unit of magnitude and may be considerably
off in location (up to 50 km). A local magnitude scale is used and
no correction for distance is incorporated by PNSN for these events.
This swarm coincides with the other events of Ml>=4 in the region on
the 10th of November and makes that regional activation all the more
interesting. Remember, also to expand your search parameters to include
this area if you do a search at the above site, or you will not see these events.

Don had expected an earthquake of Ml2.5-3.9 at 43N 128.4W on Nov. 11,
(window was Nov 9-13). The swarm began north of his expected epicenter
on the 11th, put the event at 18:27 on Nov 12 is located exactly
at the epicenter predicted by Don. This has to be a grade A++,
Don, either you are getting better at this, or I am getting more
accepting of your predictions.

Statistics:
There have been 10 earthquakes since 1980 which would have been
successful matches to Don's forecast. The Ml>4.0 on Nov 12 was
the largest ever recorded in this region. The last occurred on
July 1, 2000 (Ml 2.5). So, 10 of 1533 five-day periods have contained
a "successful event", for a success probability of 0.006 or odds
of about 1 in 153. That's a pretty good guess - do you do horse races
too, Don?

Don's forecast had read:

Eugene, Oregon Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on November 08, 2001 at 11:54:42:

Magnitude: 2.4-3.9Md
From: 11/09/2001 - To: 11/13/2001
Location: Eugene, Oregon
Lat: 43.0N - Long: 128.4W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. This forecast should make Lowell work a little harder then usual.
He will really have to look hard to find an indication of a quake and score it.
The problem is the quake may be too small to register on a seismograph. However
to make it easy for him it will be a miss if there is no indication of a quake
anywhere in the area.

There should be a quake with a magnitude 2.4 to 3.9 at 43.0N/128.4W on
11/11/2001. This is about 300Km off the coast of Oregon and about 425Km WSW
of Eugene, Oregon. The widow opens on 11/09/2001 and will close on 11/13/2001.
The radius is 40Km.

• PNSN on-line catalog